Toronto @ PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA -1½ +180 over Toronto

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +180 BET365  -1½ +175 SportsInteraction -1½ +175 5DIMES  -1½ +179

Posted at 10:45 AM EST

1:35 PM EST. J.A. Happ (LHP) is validating his 3.97 ERA by posting some solid skills that include 11.4 K’s/9, a 1.10 WHIP and a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 49%/15%/36%. We’ve gone over this before that Happ has never in his previous 10 years as a starter posted anything close to the numbers he’s posting this year. His fastball does not have higher velocity, his pitch mix has not been altered and his control is not off the charts either. What Happ has done so far this year is unexplainable but the skills support it for now. Still, we’ve been following this guy for a decade and we’re going to put more emphasis on his past 228 major-league starts than his last 10. Besides that, he’s pitching for a team that is seeing BB gun pellets at the plate.

Nick Pivetta (RHP) is logging one of the most believable breakout performances of any young starter this season. Beyond producing a 3.23 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP after pitching half his games at an extreme hitter’s park, Pivetta has recorded a dominant BB/K split of 12/60 in 53 innings while keeping opposing hitters off balance (27.1 percent hard-contact rate). Furthermore, Pivetta is getting better by allowing one run and striking out 25 across 19 innings during his past three starts. His superb skills and recent results add up to a must-play option at this price for a home outing against a Blue Jays lineup that has slumped of late and will work without the DH spot at this National League venue.

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Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA -1½ +180 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.60)

Toronto +109 over Tampa Bay
Milwaukee -101 over N.Y. Mets
N.Y. Yankees +105 over Houston
Boston +128 over Seattle
San Francisco +133 over San Diego