St. Louis @ PITTSBURGH
St. Louis -1½ +130 over PITTSBURGH

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Posted at 12:30 PM EST

4:05 PM EST. The Pirates' stock is high after their recent dominance over these Cardinals. Factor in yesterday's 8-1 drubbing and the Bucs have now won six straight over the Red Birds. Trevor Williams (RHP) will head to the hill for the Pirates and although he brings a respectable 3.05 ERA to the table a closer look shows there are cracks in his foundation. Williams' xERA of 4.65 is a far more accurate reflection of how bad he's truly been. Williams is flirting with disaster on a nightly basis because he's not striking anybody out with just 40 K’s in 59 frames and he has a ground ball rate of 38.5%. Williams also has an otherworldly strand rate of 79.1%, which is impossible to maintain. That number is the biggest reason for Williams' shiny surface stats, but the lipstick is wearing off this pig.

Enter Jack Flaherty (RHP) who the Cards will lean on to stop the bleeding today. Flaherty just picked up his first win of the season last time out over the Phillies but just because it took a little longer than it should have doesn't mean he isn't delivering the goods. Flaherty has struck out 27 batters in 23.1 frames. Earlier this season, Flaherty wasn't able to find a permanent home in the rotation, but now that Adam Wainwright is on the DL, there is no reason for Flaherty not to take his rightful place, as he is a former first-round pick. Flaherty spent the start of last season in Double-A but quickly rose up the ranks after having great success at that level. A move to the Pacific Coast League, which is a hitters haven did nothing to slow him down either, as he maintained his high strikeout rate while holding opposing batters to just a .209 average. Flaherty has split his time in 2018 between the majors and Memphis, but he's shown he's too good for Triple-A after posting a 4-1 record at that level while flaming 41 hitters in 31.2 innings. Flaherty has lowered his opponents' BAA to just .190 at the minors' highest level. Flaherty is still somewhat under the radar, but that door is about to be slammed shut. Buy now before his stock soars and the W’s pile up.

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Our Pick

St. Louis -1½ +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110