St. Louis @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH -1½ +166 over St. Louis

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +166 BET365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction -1½ +165 5DIMES -1½ +166

Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Although John Gant (RHP) did not factor in the decision in his last start, a closer look shows he easily could have been on the hook for the loss after giving up five runs on four hits through 4.1 innings. On the surface it doesn't look too bad for Gant, as he is striking out more than a batter an inning in his 17.1 frames pitched this season including seven Phillies last time out. Further helping to make Gant’s case as a play today is he’s holding opposing hitters to just a .215 average. The yang to that ying, however, is that Gant is also giving up runs in bunches with 11 earned over those 17+ innings. Also consider the Phillies strikeout more than most teams in the league (ranked 29th), which is a luxury that Gant will not have tonight when he faces a Pirates squad who has quietly quit their free-swinging ways and are now one of the most disciplined teams in the majors.

Pirates’ hitters have the fewest strikeouts in the National League and second overall in the bigs, but their stock is low after losing five of six games. A big reason for that is because Buccos pitchers are getting roasted after giving up 16 runs over their last three games. Enter Joe Musgrove, who makes his first start of the season to stop the bleeding. Musgrove's name should be familiar, as he was the key piece that came back from the Astros in the Geritt Cole trade. Musgrove was drafted by the Blue Jays in the first round in 2011 but was traded to the 'Stros the next year. The hype train was rolling down the tracks when Musgrove was finally called up in 2016 where he went 4-4 with 55 K's in 62 innings pitched. Musgrove moved back and forth from the Astros rotation to the pen last season, but that had less to do with his skills than it did with Houston being loaded with quality arms. Musgrove was in the bullpen by the time the Astros won the World Series and he actually picked up the win in relief in Game 5. He looked to be in the mix for Houston's set-up/closer role this year before being dealt to the Pirates. After a mixed bag of results with Houston over a season and a half, one could write off Musgrove as another bust, but do not forget he dominated at every level before making it to the bigs. Sure his ERA last season was a disappointing 4.77, but his xERA was lower at 4.03 and we know which one of those numbers is more reliable. While in the Astros bullpen last season, Musgrove was able to work on and master his nasty slider while also increasing his velocity. Musgrove's ERA was a spectacular 1.44 while he was in that multi-inning relief role. Like many a young pitcher, it's far too early to write of Musgrove. He throws consistent strikes, which is a great place to start. The move to the more pitcher-friendly PNC Park from Minute Maid should serve Musgrove well and he offers plenty of value and upside today. But-low, sell high is a mantra we endorse frequently and it applies here.

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Our Pick

PITTSBURGH -1½ +166 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.32)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110