Toronto @ PHILADELPHIA
Toronto -1½ +195 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +179 BET365  -1½ +195 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES  -1½ +180

Posted at 1:00 PM EST

7:05 PM EST. Before we discuss this game, we have to thank http://MLB.TV for providing us with another outlet to watch Blue Jays games and therefore not subject us to having to listen to the two biggest idiots in sports announcing with Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler.

Buck Martinez: “I’ll tell you what. Devon Travis isn’t very fast but he makes up for it with his speed”. Pat Tabler’s response: “I’ll tell you what. Travis is deceptively quick”.

Buck Martinez: “I’ll tell you what. Marco Estrada has the greatest changeup in the history of baseball”. Pat Tabler’s response: “I’ll tell you what. Estrada’s might have the best changeup I’ve ever seen”.

Inevitably, one will say with a full count and two outs, “The runners will be off on the pitch”. They never fail to say that and they talk to viewers like we’re a bunch of morons. Now to the game:

The Blue Jays come into this game in a bad way having lost seven straight, all at home no less and being forced to use a minor-league call-up after Marcus Stroman and Jaimie Garcia landed on the DL. Joe Biagini had the first shot covering for Stroman, but whiffed with another disaster start (his third, after two earlier spot starts), so he will head to the bullpen. Thus, today’s starter, Sam Gaviglio (RHP) was not even Plan A, he’s Plan B. Gaviglio pitched for both Kansas City and Seattle last year and ended up with a 4.36 ERA after 74 innings. Gaviglio is 28 years old. He was an “older” rookie last season that pitched to low expectations with predictable results. He showed a nice curveball, but a lack of swing-and-miss stuff underscored his mundane arsenal that batters abused in the second half until he was optioned, then traded. As the adage goes, there's really no there, there but here he is, pitching for a sinking ship and being offered a tiny price. Philadelphia looks like free money here and once again we’re cautioning you big time to beware of something that looks too good.

Philadelphia is 18-7 at home and 28-19 overall. Zach Eflin (RHP) has looked really good in three starts, both on the surface (1.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) and beneath it with 17 K’s in 17 innings. Why o’ why are the Phillies so underpriced here? You had better ask yourself that question before pulling the trigger. Some folks (bettors) don’t believe in traps. We do and this one sets up as such. Being able to recognize these “trouble spots” is only a small component of being successful and while betting the Jays may not be appealing, at the very least, if you were thinking Philadelphia, perhaps we can save you a wager. We don’t like Toronto either here, as it is near impossible to but there are so many mismatches today where teams’ are favored in the -180 to -200 range and this one is almost evenly priced (game opened -115)? Boy, does this one ever have a foul odor to it and it’s for that reason, we’re moving in on the Blue Jays on the alternate run line. If it is indeed a trap like we suspect, Toronto figures to win by more than a run.

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Our Pick

Toronto -1½ +195 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.90)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110