BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +146 BET365 -1½ +145 SportsInteraction -1½ +145 5DIMES -1½ +146

Posted at 10:45 AM EST

8:05 PM EST. Lots of things to like about the Royals here and we’ll start with value. Kansas City is perceived as one of the worst teams in the majors by this market and that’s not true at all. Yesterday we mentioned that they strike out fewer than any team in baseball, which means that they put the ball in play and that’s a massive advantage, especially at an extreme hitter’s park like this one. Kansas City has the ability to put up a crooked number at any time because of it. Next, we have the Rangers coming off back-to-back wins over the Yankees, which included yesterday’s rally, in which they came back from a 10-5 deficit to win 12-10. A big rally v New York puts them in line for a letdown here.

Danny Duffy (LHP) has been awful in five of his past six starts and has an 8.54 ERA over his past five outings. However, he has been at his best in his four night starts, with a 4.22 ERA and the Rangers struggle against LHP, with a .694 OPS that ranks 13th in the AL. Duffy's strengths in this outing are his K-rate and win rating and he's matched against what we’re calling the day's lowest-rated pitcher. Those elements push this into strong start territory for Duffy although his recent performances say there is lots of risk here. We’ll live with the risk, as this is a straight fade against the Rangers and their starter.

LHP Matt Moore hit the DL to make room for Ariel Jurado, who promptly returned to the minors after his spot start. Some might speculate that Moore's swollen ERA, rather than the announced sore knee, led to his DL stint, as Texas tries to figure out if they can solve the lefty's problems. Texas Mgr Jeff Banister was contemplating using Austin Bibens-Dirkx or Yohander Mendez and has settled on the former. That prompts us to move in hard.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx (RHP) went 5-2 with a 4.67 ERA in 69 innings for the Rangers last year over 24 appearances (six starts, 18 relief appearances). This 33-year-old minor league journeyman finally got the call, though his skills history says it was unearned. A lucky hit % helped keep him above water in the first half, then waves overtook him in the second half. Given his inability to miss bats, his fly-ball tilt and horrible command versus lefties, the sequel is likely to be worse than the long-delayed premiere. Behind Bibens-Dirkx is a taxed bullpen.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.