Kansas City @ ST. LOUIS
Kansas City +151 over ST. LOUIS

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +151 BET365 +150 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +151

Posted at 11:15 AM EST

1:15 PM EST. Jake Junis is coming off a two-run, one walk performance across 5.1 innings against the Yankees where he was able to pick up the victory. Junis owns a 3.15 ERA and has struck out 48 batters and walked just 12 in 56.1 frames. The goods under the hood support his strong play, which started in the second half of 2017. Junis dominated Triple-A before getting the call-up after posting a strikeout rate of 10.9 K’s/9 at the minors' highest level. He has continued to flame batters at the major league level, increasing his K-rate over last season while also lowering his walks. It's still very early in his career, but Junis is certainly trending in the right direction. If there is one blip on the radar, it's that Junis has surrendered 11 dingers this season, but when you consider five of those came in one game against the White Sox, that total isn't nearly as bad as it looks. There is value in Junis just about every time he's taking back a price on the bump just as he is today. As a team, the Royals are undervalued in the market. Kansas City has won just two of its last 10 games, but it is one of the most disciplined teams at the dish, as it sports the lowest strikeouts per game in all of MLB. That means they put the ball in play more than any other team and that’s significant.

Michael Wacha's stock is high after he put the finishing touches on a two-run, five hit, eight strikeout performance over six innings against the Phillies last time out. That win was Wacha's fifth W in a row, but all that success isn't quite what it's cracked up to be. Wacha sports a 3.08 ERA on the surface, but a closer look reveals that Wacha's eroding skills are supported by his declining strikeout rate and an inflated walk rate that is up to 3.8 BB’s/9 over 2.99 in 2017. Wacha's walk rate has gone up every season since his debut in 2013. Wacha has lost a little something on his fastball, which has caused him to throw it far less this season over last. He isn't keeping the ball on the ground as often as he usually does, instead allowing a lot of line drives and a top 10 hard contact rate. He's been helped by a low home run per fly ball rate and slightly elevated strand rate, which have helped him outperform his xERA by a wide margin. It appears that Wacha no longer trusts his stuff and neither do we. At this rate it won't be long before the Cardinals send him to the bullpen and if not for the injuries to the Red Birds' rotation, that may have already happened.

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Our Pick

Kansas City +151 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.02)

Kansas City +108 over Toronto
Seattle -1½ +150 over Texas