Atlanta @ PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta +111 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +111 BET365 +100 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +105

Posted at 11:15 AM EST

7:05 PM EST. Luiz Gohara (LHP) went 1-3 with a 4.91 ERA in 29 innings for the Braves last season. He moved through three levels of minors and made a September debut all in one season, thanks to his deceptive delivery and elite strikeout rate. His poor results v righties caused by a small sample and bad luck (42% hit rate/60% strand rate) in five MLB starts makes him worth speculating on here. The highly-touted 21-year-old prospect has made three relief appearances this May, and now the Braves want him in the starting rotation and we’re more than willing to run with Gohara, as this wager is all about fading Jake Arrieta (RHP).

Arrieta is 3-2 with a nifty 2.82 after eight starts and we cannot even begin to overstate how fortunate he’s been. Luck plays a big role in surface stats and Jake Arrieta is the epitome of that. There are three reasons to fade Arrieta: 1) xERA is two runs higher than is actual ERA and is trending in the wrong direction; 2) swing and miss/first-pitch strikes suggest strikeout rate/control downside; 3) 3 mph drop in velocity compared to 2016. We’ll start with that but that’s more. Arrieta has a mere 28 K’s in 45 frames to go along with a weak 5% swing and miss rate. This is a pitcher that puts the ball in play and relies on luck, variance and defense. Pitchers like Arrieta are always at risk for a blowup and with the weather warming up and this park being unkind to pitchers than can’t strike anyone out, Arrieta’s charmed life is about to come crashing down. Contrary to market perception, Jake Arrieta is not a quality starter anymore.

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Our Pick

Atlanta +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110