Milwaukee/ARIZONA over 9
Milwaukee/ARIZONA over 9 -107

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle O9 -107 BET365 O9 -115 SportsInteraction O9 -115 5DIMES O9 -110

Posted at 11:15 AM EST

7:40 PM EST. Jhoulys Chacin (RHP) takes on the Diamondbacks for the second straight start. In his last time out, he threw a magnificent, seven-inning, two-hit gem versus them and in three home starts this season, Chacin owns a 2.04 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. It’s all smoke and mirrors. Chacin’s skill set is marginal at best, as he has a 5.13 xERA, a horrible BB/K split of 23/36 in 52 innings and left-handed batters have tore him apart with a .831 OPS. We get a beatable number here because the Snakes are going bad and Chacin dominated Arizona a few days ago, which he will almost surely not do again. Arizona’s offense very likely wakes up here.

We would be all over the Diamondbacks if any other pitcher but Matt Koch (RHP) was starting because things are going to get a lot worse before they get any better for this pure stiff. Koch had a 2.43 ERA prior to his most recent start, when he gave up eight runs over 4.1 innings, but that was just the start of regression catching up with him. His xERA suggests his ERA will continue rising, and over four starts in May, he has a 5.32 ERA and 5.22 xERA. His strikeout rate and swinging strikes are terrible. It's rare to find a pitcher this K-averse in today's strikeout-heavy environment, and it really limits his upside. Matt Koch has a 4% swing and miss rate and if you can’t strike out Brewers, trouble is waiting. Koch has 13 K’s over his last 30 innings and six of those were pitchers. Dude is batting practice out there but his 4.06 surface ERA has him getting FAR too much market respect. He’s heading back down to the minors real soon but more importantly, this total is extremely beatable.

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Our Pick

Milwaukee/ARIZONA over 9 -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110