Philadelphia @ ST. LOUIS
ST. LOUIS -1½ +172 over Philadelphia

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +172 BET365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction -1½ -1+165 5DIMES -1½ -1+165

Posted at 1:00 PM EST

2:15 PM EST. This line stinks to high heaven, as Zach Eflin comes in with a 0.71 ERA after two starts and 13 frames while John Gant has a 4.15 ERA after one start and three relief appearances. Yet, there Eflin is taking back a price today against a spot starter. This will be Eflin's third start of the season after he stuck out nine Giants in 6.2 frames to pick up his first win of the year last time out. That start actually came 12 days ago because Eflin's turn in the rotation was skipped last Sunday after he was passed over in favor of Aaron Nola to close out that series with the Mets. For a guy that has an 0.71 ERA and who was seemingly striking out every batter that stepped up to the plate, it's might seem odd that Eflin was bumped but a closer look shows his small sample size isn't nearly as impressive as it looks on the surface. Eflin's xERA is a full three runs higher than his actual ERA and his walk rate is up a couple of ticks over 2017. While his 13 K's in 12.2 innings cannot be ignored, as we mentioned above nearly 75% of those K's came against a San Francisco team that ranks fifth in the majors in whiffs.

Enter John Gant, who is making a spot start in place of the injured Carlos Martinez. Gant was a part of the Jaime Garcia trade a couple of years ago and has pitched 80 total innings in his big league career, which also includes eight starts. As a rookie in 2016, Gant struck out nearly a man an inning and made seven starts for the Braves. 2017 was a disappointment, as Gant spent most of the season in AAA, but the K's were still there after he flamed 99 batters in 103.1 innings. Gant has 11 K's in 13 innings pitched so far this season and his first pitch strike rate of 69.2% is nearly 10% higher over the last two seasons. He's a three-pitch pitcher with a 93 MPH fastball that has hit as high as 96 and it features a better than average spin rate. Gant's changeup is his best pitch, as it is able to fool lefties by dropping out of sight as it approaches the dish. He also features a loopy mid-70s curveball, which is capable of getting a tough out when he needs it. On the season, Gant is 1-1 and has started just one game. Despite appearing to be bullpen fodder and not having any market presence, Gant is probably higher priced than he should be against the Phillies and we have to wonder why with such a wide gap in pedigree and surface stats that favors the Phillies. If Eflin flames the Cards today, then so be it, but the oddsmakers have their doubts and so do we.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

ST. LOUIS -1½ +172 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.44)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110