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Posted at 12:30 PM EST

7:05 PM EST. Win or lose, this is such a great value bet. Nick Tropeano (RHP) took a no-decision last time out in his first start after a DL stint. That missed time was for inflammation in his throwing shoulder, which on its own is no big deal, but when you consider Tropeano missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, it's a red flag. Tropeano didn't pitch last year, thus, we can only go on his pre-surgery numbers from two years ago to get an idea of whether or not he's all the way back and a closer look shows that his strikeout rate is way down to 6.67 K’s/9 this year from 8.96 in 2016. Tropeano's first pitch strike rate is also down and so is his swinging strike percentage. Tropeano has lost a little on his fastball, as it's down 1/MPH to 90.8/MPH from his career high. He's also throwing it with much less frequency, which suggests he does not trust his stuff. That mindset can be very dangerous for a starting pitcher and it's something we saw last night with the Giants' Jeff Samardzija. The surface stats might suggest that Tropeano is a competent starting pitcher, but the goods under the hood say he's barely holding on to what little arm he has left.

Blake Snell (LHP) got rocked last time out, which isn't all that particularly significant unless you consider he and the Rays were a popular bet that day against the free-swinging Orioles. Anyone that backed Snell on Sunday was ripping up their tickets after he gave up five runs over 3.1 innings. Baltimore hung 17 runs on the Rays and that poor outing by Smell provides us with this market overreaction. Let’s not forget that Snell started the season 4-0. When it comes to young pitchers, you need to make educated guesses on when they might be ready to emerge. That involves understanding a young pitcher’s prospect pedigree and speculating on small sample sizes. Snell was drafted out of high school by Tampa Bay in the supplemental first round of the 2011 draft. Even though he was a high draft pick, Snell was inconsistent early on in his minor league career due to chronic control problems. The light came on for him after he was promoted to Double-A in 2015. He was pushed to Triple-A late in that season, where he became one of the premier starting prospects in the minors. Snell got his first shot at the majors in 2016, showing both his upside (9.9 K’s/9) and risk (5.2 BB’s/9). After struggling to find the plate at several stops in the minors, that weakness would prove to be the primary reason that his development stalled during his first two seasons in the big leagues. Another tour of Triple-A the following season resurrected his upside. Subsequently, another call-up to Tampa brought back his control demons.

Like many young pitchers—especially tall ones—Snell struggled to repeat his delivery consistently, which made it difficult for him to consistently throw strikes. A pitcher with average control typically will have a first-pitch strike rate of around 60% and a ball percentage of around 36%. Snell was considerably worse than both of those baselines. It’s often the case that a young pitcher with both enticing skill flashes and dangerous skill dips will own wide platoon splits. Interestingly, Snell did not show any significant LH/RH command (K/BB) ratio splits during his first two MLB seasons. Snell also posted a 40% ball% against both LH and RH bats in each of those years, so he struggled to find the plate against both sided batters. It’s easy to see why Snell struggled early in his MLB career. He wasn’t been able to find the plate with his slider or curveball, both of which were his top swing-and-miss pitches in the minors and he wasn’t able to throw his four-seam fastball consistently for strikes, a weakness that prevented him from being able to sequence his pitches effectively. This is a starter with filthy stuff that wasn’t able to throw strikes but something clicked in this year. Snell’s growth in 2018 can be directly attributed to his curveball and slider. He is throwing both pitches over the plate with regularity. His 20%+ swing and miss rate with both pitches gives him two legitimate strikeout offerings. While it’s far from a strikeout pitch, his four-seam fastball is generating more swinging strikes than ever before. Snell’s curveball continues to stymie batters. He has allowed only three extra-base hits with his curveball in 2018. The difference has been his ability to throw it over the plate. It’s inducing swings at a 48% clip. Batters swung at it less than 40% of the time during his prior two MLB seasons.

We know that pitchers with long limbs like Snell often struggle to repeat their delivery and find consistent release points. Both Snell’s horizontal and vertical release points show much less variation so far in 2018 compared to 2017 and Snell’s arsenal contains even more upside. The next step for him is to get his fastball over the plate more often. Doing so will allow him to set up and sequence his off-speed pitches better. Given Snell’s significant step forward late in 2017 and his further gains so far in 2018, he has re-established himself as one of the premium young arms in the game, and is worthy of investing in when taking back a tag. Snell’s 53 K’s against just 16 walks in 52 frames is legit and so is his 3.12 ERA but all this market remembers is his last outing.

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