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Posted at 11:30 AM EST

10:15 PM EST. We love every game we post but if someone held a gun to us and said pick one, this might be it. This is a straight fade on the Rockies with Chad Bettis (RHP) going, which has to be considered one of the worst road team/pitcher combos in the game today. First off, don’t be fooled by Colorado’s 16-9 road record, as it is all a massive mirage in line for a big correction to the bad. The Rocks rank 27th in road OPS, 26th in SLG %, 25th in OBP and 28th in team batting average. They have somehow managed to win a bunch of low scoring road games but that charmed life is going to end real soon. This is a weak baseball team with horrible offensive numbers that is grossly overvalued becauses of that shiny road record. That 4-0 loss in San Diego a couple of days ago against Jordan Lyles are the true Rockies that we’re going to be seeing a lot more of on the road over the next few weeks. Sell Colorado’s road record immediately and be prepared to cash in on the false market perception of the Rockies.

Chad Bettis draws the matchup against Jeff Samardzija’s (LHP) 6.94 ERA. Bettis has a strong 3.12 ERA, but a 4.54 xERA and ugly underlying skills indicate that he's been more lucky than skillful. Bettis has gotten outstanding results away from Coors Field, with a 1.35 ERA in five starts, which also has market influence but again, this combo of Bettis and Colorado on the road is about as misleading as it gets. Both are horrible. Incidentally, the Giants have been solid at home, where their OPS ranks 6th in the NL.

Jeff Samardzija has struggled on the surface in his five starts thus far, with a 6.94 ERA but he’s a great example of how HR can sink a starter. 1.5 HR/9 overshadows some great skills. What he'd give for a consistent +70% strand rate. Samardzija can work deep into games and his first-pitch strike rate and swinging strike rate fuels a reliable profile. Has developed into a true workhorse and that, along with xERA, says keep investing. This is one game in which anything can happen but it really is a case of a lot of misleading information on paper that influences a market that sees nothing else but what’s on the surface. This wager is suppose to win.

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