Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST
1:10 PM EST. Zack Wheeler's 2-2 record and 5.03 ERA is not pretty on paper but a deeper dig shows us it's not nearly as bad as it looks. Wheeler's xERA is nearly a full point lower than his surface ERA and his walk rate is down from 1.56 BB/9 in 2017 to 1.06 this season. Wheeler's swing and miss rate is up this season as well and he's getting more batters to chase balls out of the strike zone increasing swings out of the zone to 32.3%, up from 24.8% in 2017. The old adage says, "hit it where they ain't," but Wheeler is doing the equivalent on the pitching side, as he's throwing 'em where they can't hit 'em. Wheeler’s stock is still low but we’re liking what we’re progressively seeing out of him.
J.A. Happ and the Blue Jays are reeling and a 12-2 loss to these Mets yesterday did nothing to stop the bleeding. The salt in the wound came in the form of one Noah Seth Syndergaard, who the Blue Jays traded as a part of the deal to bring in R.A. Dickey from New York. We have targeted Happ on more than one occasion and we will not let up this afternoon. Happ was terrible in his last start against the Mariners. A first-inning grand slam to Kyle Seager set the tone for Happ's evening, as he ended up being on the hook for seven runs on 10 hits. Happ was rocked for a pair of dingers last time out, which brings his season total to nine homers given up in eight starts. While Happ has increased his strikeout rate over last season, he's splitting at the seams, which has caused him to lean on his fastball with more frequency than ever before. However, Major League hitters are great at making adjustments and if they know the heater is coming, they'll sit on it just as the Mariners did when they clobbered Happ last Thursday. Neither Happ or the Blue Jays have done anything recently to justify being a favorite in this spot on the road, which makes the Mets a top value play today.
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N.Y. METS +123 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.46)