Cincinnati @ SAN FRAN
Cincinnati +126 over SAN FRAN

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +126 BET365 +120 SportsInteraction +120 5DIMES +122

Posted at 10:40 AM EST.

10:15 PM EST. The Reds were dreadful to open the season after dropping 15 of their first 18 games. However, since firing manager Bryan Price, Cincinnati is now rolling after racking up six wins in a row including a sweep of the Dodgers in Los Angeles this past weekend. Sal Romano (RHP) has been one of the big reasons for the Reds turnaround, as he has allowed just two runs over his last two starts while going 1-0. In his last outing, which was a tough-luck no decision to the Mets, Romano struck out a season-high seven batters and walked just one. Romano's overall season does not look very impressive, as his 4.91 ERA will attest to but he's been much sharper as of late after dropping his ERA to 2.25 over his last three starts. It’s also worth noting that Romano will face a Giants’ nine that has struck out more than any team in baseball, including the Orioles.

Unlike Romano, who started cold and got hot, Chris Stratton (RHP) was one of the biggest surprises for the Giants early in the season, but he's fallen on hard times. Stratton has given up four home runs in his last three trips to the mound. In those starts, Stratton is 1-2 with an ERA of 10.50. Stratton gives up lots of hard contact and his weak swing and miss rate of 8% doesn't support further strikeout rate upside nor does it support the 40 K’s he’s posted in 43 frames this year. Stratton’s strong 2nd half ERA last year was strand-rate driven but this year, that strand rate is 65% and his ERA reflects it. A former first rounder, Stratton, 27, took longer than expected to reach the majors and his skills reflect that too. Is "very mediocre" an oxymoron? Chris Stratton is a back of the rotation guy and will never be anything more, which makes fading him over time a profitable proposition while he’s pitching for perhaps the worst hitting lineup in baseball.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas