White Sox @ CUBS
White Sox -1½ +425 over CUBS

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +390 BET365 -1½ +425 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES -1½ +395

Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

2:20 PM EST. The White Sox are a massive dog here at +220 to +240 (depending on where you shop) but we’ll take our chances at a 8½-unit profit because the value is just so great.

We understand why the line is so high, as the White Sox are a young and struggling club while the Cubbies are a legit contender. Furthermore, on paper, this looks like a starting pitching mismatch and it may turn out to be but 98% of every team in the majors every year will lose 60 games or more so there are a lot of times that these juggernauts go down.  Additionally, we’re willing to roll the dice on a starter that could absolutely throw a gem at any time and that starter pitches for the South Side. Before we get to him, we’ll preview Kyle Hendricks, a reliable starter but one that is overpriced. Hendricks has been a consistent winner but this market has him constantly priced as a top-30 starter. While his skills haven't been bad, Hendricks brings a weak 7% swing and miss rate to the table. His only strikeout pitch is his changeup (21.2%). With a mid-80s fastball and limited raw stuff, he's a risky bet at prices like this at the best of times. Kyle Hendricks is a soft tossing right-hander that is at the mercy of BABIP and his defense. An unsustainable 86% strand rate has led to that shiny 3.03 ERA and maybe, just maybe, a team like the White Sox can get to him for a few runs. 

Last week we wrote up a piece on White Sox starter Lucas Giolito and we’ll run that again because it’s just five days later and not much has changed. We should point out that Giolito did not have a good outing against Pittsburgh five days ago but better days are ahead and Pittsburgh is a team that has struck out the fewest times in the major leagues. Also, the clips below are against the Cubbies so at the very least, Giolito knows that he’s had some success against the Cubs.  Trust us when we tell you that Giolito has filthy stuff and he delivers that filthy stuff in four different pitches. His p-potential was on display two starts ago when he whiffed seven batters and walked just two in 6.1 solid innings against the Cardinals. In sunny and warm Florida this past spring, Giolito was dealing it and was creating quite a buzz. Here’s an example of his filthy stuff against the Cubbies in a game at Wrigley last summer.  

Look at this nasty change:

 

 

Look at this damn breaking ball

 

 

 

Look at this other damn breaking ball

 

Giolito finished with eight strikeouts in four innings against the Cubs that day and he looked comfortable with his delivery. Those flashes of brilliance are indicative of what made Giolito a top-five global prospect with the Nationals in 2016, when four years after having Tommy John surgery, he was a 21-year-old throwing 98-99 mph with a hook that killed. The results this year are indicative of what happens when he gets out of sorts on the mound but we're hoping that something clicks in for this high upside starter and if it does, this ticket may just cash. The risk is worth the reward.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

White Sox -1½ +425 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 8.50)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110