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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

8:40 PM EST. Michael Wacha (RHP) is 4-1 on the season and is coming off of back-to-back no-decisions against the Cubs and White Sox respectively. Wacha walked six batters across 10 innings in those two trips to the mound. On the surface, Wacha's ERA of 3.35 looks pretty damn good, but a deeper dive shows his xERA is actually more than a full run higher at 4.41, which suggests he's been pitching over his head and that correction has begun to take place in recent starts. Wacha's strikeout rate is down from last season and his walks are up considerably to 4.3 BB/9 over 2.99 a year ago. A reason for Wacha's downturn has been the lost velocity on his fastball, which has caused him to rely on it less so far in 2018 than ever before. Wacha is throwing more changeups in the absence of his heater, but that pitch has also taken a hit after dropping nearly 2 MPH from 2017. That drop in velocity might not come as a surprise considering the shoulder issues Wacha has had in the past. Wacha has been trending downwards for years and it's only a matter of time before he's sent to the bullpen or out to pasture for good.

Enter Tyson Ross (RHP) who has a history of injury problems of his own, however, unlike his counterpart Wacha, Ross appears to be back and better than ever in 2018. Ross had a horrible 2017 after a miserable 2016, which was a year he was only able to make one start. Before 2016, Ross had been as durable as anybody, but as the pain started to mount, he chose to have TOS surgery that October. TOS is less common than Tommy John, but many big league arms have had the procedure including Chris Young, Jaime Garcia and Clayton Richard all of whom recovered and went on to pitch with success at the Major League level. Matt Harrison had his best season ever after the surgery, which suggests pitchers are able to recover the talent they had before going under the knife. Fast forward to April 20th of this year, which was the night that Ross took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Diamondbacks, who at the time were the hottest team in the National League. Ross didn't get the no-no that night, but perhaps more impressively, he was allowed to throw 127 pitches. Ross racked up 10 strikeouts in that dominant start and he brings an impressive K-rate of 9.94 K/9 to his start today. That number is up big time from last season and his walk rate is way down as well from 6.80 BB/9 last season to 3.46 in 2018. Tyson Ross is back and better than ever, but the market has not taken notice. Taking back a price with the much better pitcher is a bet we are going to make every time. The Padres are just 14-26, but are a much better team than their win total would indicate. Tyson Ross and the Padres at home are a great combination to be taking back prices with.

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