BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +137 BET365 +135 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +136

Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. The Phillies come into this series with the Mets after sweeping the Giants, but to that, we say "big deal". The Giants might still have some credibility in the market after a decade of success, but San Fran is not the same team it was when it was cashing in World Series Championships every other season even though many of the names are the same. Back to the Phillies, who will send high priced free agent acquisition Jake Arrieta to the bump tonight. Arrieta made his bread and butter with the Cubs, but just a year after helping the team win a World Series, the North Side wanted nothing to do with him. Why? Arrieta has been on the decline for years and his strikeout rate this season is pitiful at 5.7K’s/9. That number is way down from his peak of 9.5 K’s/9 just four seasons ago, but that isn't the only chink in Arrieta's armor. His K% is down 7% compared to last season while his walk rate is up slightly. Arrieta's skills are slipping away, but he is still being priced like a top-flight pitcher. Until there is a correction, we will look to target him when the matchup is right, as it is tonight.

Remember when the Mets had the best record in baseball after an 11-1 start to the season? After losing eight of their last nine, the Mets are now a very pedestrian 18-17. However, just as they were likely performing over their heads early in the season, the Mets haven't been nearly as bad as this recent rough patch would indicate. Steven Matz will toe the slab today, but long gone are day days when he was brought up with the likes of Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom as one of the young anchors in a rotation full of potential. On the surface, Matz's stats aren't that inspiring, as he is just 1-3 with a 4.23 ERA, but a closer look shows that he's been dealing it out there after striking out 10.08 batters per nine, which is up significantly over last season. Matz's walk rate is also down slightly and his xERA is near elite at 3.79. New York traded headcase Matt Harvey to the Reds and you know he must have been a huge distraction because Major League teams are not eager to give away a serviceable arm. Just look at the retreads that get thrown out there on a daily basis. The Mets managed to fill a need with the Harvey trade after bringing in catcher Devin Mesoraco. Mesoraco should provide some stability after the Mets first two options behind the dish, Travis d'Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki, both went down with injuries. The Mets stock is low, Phillies is high and the market perception is that Philadelphia has the better starter here. They don’t.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.