San Fran @ PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA -1½ +143 over San Fran

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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

1:05 PM EST. Note the early start time. Ty Blach is a soft-tossing lefty that walked a fine line all of last year and nothing has changed this year in eight starts. His late struggles last year eventually cost him his rotation spot but he’s back in the rotation this year because the Giants are dealing with injuries to better starters. Ty Blach has delivered a 3.60 ERA over those eight starts covering 45 frames but it’s a massive mirage. Blach has walked 15 batters and struck out 22 in 45 innings to form one of the worst K-rates and ratios among starters in the league. The only thing he has going for him is a strong groundball rate and his home park but pay attention to his career numbers on the road, where he’s posted a 5.55 ERA with a .972 OPS v righties. There aren't enough LHB in the majors to make him useful as a starter. This game/pitching matchup is a great example of how misleading ERA’s can be.

Vince Velasquez (RHP) comes in with a 5.14 after seven starts while Blach comes in with a 3.60 ERA after eight starts. We can’t overstate enough how misleading that is. Blach has been on the extreme side of good fortune while Velasquez has been on the wrong side of fortune. You can blame a high/unlucky 37% hit rate and low 64% strand rate for those surface struggles but Velasquez’s base skills were quite strong and he's attacking the strike zone at a higher rate than he has in the past. Velasquez has 38 K’s in 35 frames with 13 walks issued. Once his 40% hit rate vs. LHers regresses and his newfound strong command against them shines, it wouldn't be surprising to see Velasquez go on a nice streak. In terms of xERA, Blach’s is 5.22 and Velasquez’s is 4.01 A correction is forthcoming to both and with Philadelphia being hot and San Fran being cold, we’ll wager that correction starts here.

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Our Pick

PHILADELPHIA -1½ +143 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.86)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110