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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. We realize that the Yanks are on fire and that they may be the best team in the majors but c’mon now, the Red Sox are a quality outfit too and C.C Sabathia (LHP) would not be favored against Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) if Sabathia was pitching for any other team in the majors. In fact, he would be an underdog to be sure.

Sabathia comes in with a 1.39 ERA after six starts, which is one of the more misleading ERA’s in the game thus far. While C.C. is throwing strikes with just five walks issued in 32 frames, he’s not missing enough bats to be putting up an ERA like he is. Truth is, Sabathia is getting by with a 22%-94% hit-strand profile and we promise you that strand rates are nothing but luck and so are hit rates. A hard hit ball either drops in or it gets caught and batters that hit .300 every year are the ones that put the ball in play and rarely strike out. Roughly three out of 10 hit balls will drop in, thus the .300 average. So, when you see a pitcher without a high K-rate, balls are in play and that pitcher’s batting average against (BAA) should be in the .270 to .300 range but C.C’s BAA is .190 with 23 K’s in 32 innings. Balls are in play but are not finding holes or dropping in so a correction is coming. A 23% line-drive rate says so. C.C. Sabathia is serviceable but he’s a mid-rotation guy on his best day and his risk still trumps his reward. A massive correction to his surface ERA is coming.

Eduardo Rodriguez’s hit rate is 30% with a 63% strand rate, which is the polar opposite of C.C’s fortunate numbers. Rodriguez has a 5.29 ERA, which is almost four runs higher than C.C’s and is almost comical when you compare the skills. Rodriguez is a 2018 breakout candidate. He pairs good fastball velocity with a nasty change-up (23% swing and miss & 53% grounders). This arsenal induces enough swinging strikes to support 2017's and 2018 gains. It's reasonable to expect better than a strikeout per inning from him again in 2018 and he’s on par for that with 39 K’s in 32 frames so far. Impressive skills gains in 2017 are evident in all of his skills but according to the sub-indicators his xCommand rate hints at additional upside. Eduardo Rodriguez is a former top prospect that appears to be on the cusp of a breakout season and he’s vastly superior to his mound opponent tonight. Win or lose, this is a must play based on value.

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