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Posted at 12:30 PM EST

7:05 PM EST. We’re not going to get into a discussion about how extremely lucky the Jays were to savage the finale in Tampa on Sunday but we will point out that Toronto scored seven runs in three games and now has scored 11 runs in its last four games combined. That does not bode well against James Paxton (LHP). Paxton owns an average 4.19 ERA and below average 1.32 WHIP after his first seven starts of 2018 but there is nothing average about him whatsoever. Paxton has a sick 16/60 BB/K split in 39 innings, which is the highest K-rate in the majors among qualified starters this year. Paxton’s swing and miss rate was 25% in his last start, which is so high off the charts that it’s not even funny. James Paxton is among the elite starters in the game and he’ll face a laboring host here.

While the market focuses on the offense of the Astros, Yanks, Red Sox and Cubbies, Seattle’s offense is one that should also be feared. The numbers may never back that up because they play a lot of games at pitcher friendly stadiums (Safeco, Angels Stadium, Oakland Coliseum) but get this squad in a hitter friendly environment and crooked numbers will be plentiful. In the last hitter-friendly environment they played in at Cleveland in a four-game set at the end of April, Seattle scored 32 runs combined. They also scored four, six and nine runs in three of their last six games played in Oakland and Anaheim. The Mariners have a solid .793 OPS on the road where they are averaging 5.4 runs per game and now they get Marcus Stroman (RHP) in Toronto.

It has been a rather unflattering start for the Blue Jays ace, whose swing and miss rate has reached its lowest point since mid-2014. His overall swing rate has bottomed out in dramatic fashion, thus, Stroman’s 30 K’s in 32 frames is not supported. Seattle will put the ball in play here. Furthermore, the lack of swings have made him especially vulnerable to free passes, as his 4.5 BB’s/9 will attest to. Until it gets sorted out, or at least until some kind of explanation surfaces, he’s a risky starter. Marcus Stroman is getting hit hard and although some off it is due to bad luck (55% strand rate), that’s not what has torpedoed his surface stats. It’s a combination of hard hit balls, bad luck, not enough strikes and batters squaring up better than ever against him. Everything points to the Mariners here.

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