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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

8:05 PM EST. In his four starts this season, Jarlin Garcia (LHP) has allowed just two runs on 10 hits. Five of those hits were in his most recent start against the Phillies. His ERA on the season is a tidy 1.09 and that comes with a WHIP of 0.85, so there is a consistency in what he has done in his six total appearances. Garcia has three useful pitches, with his changeup being the best. The Miami southpaw can move the fastball around in the zone and both the slider and changeup have decent movement. Garcia has been able to use those pitches effectively to maintain good split numbers as righties have hit just .209 against him so far and lefties are even worse. In his first two years of full-season ball in 2014 and 2015, Garcia was a full-time starter and handled himself nicely, pitching over 250 innings with pretty good success and encouraging peripheral numbers. It was then that some of the injury issues began to surface and 2016 saw him throw only 51.2 innings. It would be easy to look back on that early success and decide that he is now healthy and adjusted to the majors and his current level of performance could continue. Time will tell and things could turn on him at any time, as his underlying numbers do not support the results but there is no question that Garcia has batters off balance and they’re having a helluva time squaring up against him.

The Cubbies just got swept in St. Louis to run their losing streak to five. To make matters worse, last night’s ESPN’s Game of the Week went 14 innings and ended close to 2:00 AM EST. The Cubs did not get a single hit from the sixth inning until Jason Heyward’s double in the 12th. The Cubbies are a game over .500 but they’re priced like it’s 2016. They’ll come into this game mentally fatigued and physically struggling after playing its biggest rival and Kyle Hendricks (RHP) is also priced like it’s 2016.

Kyle Hendricks has been a consistent winner but this market has him constantly priced as a top-30 starter when in fact, he’s not. While his skills haven't been bad, his command sub-indicators have all been below par with a 8% swing and miss rate, 58% first-pitch strike rate and 37% ball %. All of those marks have eroded from 2017. His only strikeout pitch is his changeup (21.2%). With a mid-80s fastball and limited raw stuff, he's a risky bet at the best of times. Kyle Hendricks is a soft tossing lefty or what is known as a crafty lefty. Starters like Hendricks are definitely serviceable (Jamie Moyer did it for almost two decades) but there is always risk of a blow-up because of their soft-tossing ways. An unsustainable 86% strand rate has led to that shiny ERA but the truth can be found in his 4.27 xERA. Hendricks is decent but he can’t be priced like he’s Stephen Strasburg and Miami is a feisty and very playable pooch in this range.

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