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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

Note: This game, like the first two of this series is being played in Mexico so there is no home advanatage.

April was already unkind to the Dodgers before the final day of the month brought news that All-Star shortstop Corey Seager will miss the rest of the year following Tommy John surgery. At the beginning of the season, PECOTA projected the Dodgers for 97 wins and gave them an 85% chance of making the postseason. Sportsbooks pegged their over/under win total at 96½—all the highest figures in the National League. And now? Their projected win total is 86, their playoff odds are 47 percent, and anyone who bet the “under” can start counting the money already.

Seager has been one of the best players in baseball since the moment he stepped onto a big-league diamond in September of 2015, hitting .302/.372/.494 in 355 games along with playing capable defense at an up-the-middle position. He’s batted second or third in the Dodgers’ lineup nearly that entire time, he’s fared well versus both righties and lefties, and he’s come through in clutch situations. Seager joins everyday players Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig, Logan Forsythe on the disabled list but this line does not reflect any of that because San Diego’s record is worse. The Padres are a team we still like that is going to rack up some wins at great value and this is another good opportunity for that to take place.

Eric Lauer comes in with a 10.13 ERA after his first two big-league starts and that’s another reason why the Dodgers are so overpriced here. However, his two starts came at Colorado and in a windy afternoon in San Fran with the winds blowing out so don’t put too much emphasis on it. Lauer still struck out 10 batters in eight combined innings and he’s much better than his surface stats show. Lauer, a classic pitchability lefty out of Kent State in 2016, quickly moved through the minors with his repeatable, effortless delivery with an easy, clean, three-quarter arm slot. Lauer’s fastball sits in the low-90s and at its best flashes as a plus pitch. He backs that up with an above-average change that looks identical to the fastball, alongside a fringe-to-average slider and a below average curve. Lauer’s stuff plays up due to solid command and an ability to effectively change speeds as well as the pacing of his delivery. His xERA after two starts is 4.33. Not great but nowhere near his 10.13 actual ERA.

Ross Stripling will put his 2.33 ERA on the line here against Eric Lauer’s 10.13 ERA and of course that has big market influence. Ross Stripling has been around since 2016 and has appeared in 83 games but has only started three times over his last 61 appearances. Why? You see, Stripling is a starter turned reliever that was a fifth round signing in 2012. The reason starters get demoted to the pen is because of a lack of a third pitch. There is not a pitcher on the planet whose goal is to pitch in relief. All relievers are former starters that could not cut it as a starter. After his first 10 appearances out of the pen, Stripling was called to start against Arizona on April 30 and lasted four innings after surrendering eight hits and four runs with two of those hits leaving the yard. He made one relief appearance after that and he’s back in the rotation for this one start. Pay little attention to a reliever’s numbers that are now starting. Relievers are “specialists” that are almost always brought in for a favorable matchup to give them the best chance to succeed. Sometimes, said relievers are brought in to face one or two batters or just throw one frame, thus, Ross Stripling’s surface ERA holds no weight whatsoever. He comes in with a horrible 1.53 WHIP and 5.31 xERA. There is a reason that he was demoted back in 2016 and has been in the pen since and it’s not because he’s some hotshot prospect. No, he’s a desperation start for a Dodgers’ team that is reeling and in big trouble. Win or lose, this is the biggest overlay on today’s board.

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