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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. This game is appealing for a couple of reasons. First, we see great value in playing the reverse run line or alternate run-line in these hitter’s ballparks and second, Marlins starter Caleb Smith is so much better than his surface stats would suggest. Smith is just 1-3 with a 4.40 ERA, but he picked up that W the last time out after giving up two hits over seven scoreless innings against the Rockies. Most impressive was his ability to strike out nine batters while walking just one, which has him trending in the right direction after 15 walks through his first 22 innings this season. Two starts ago against the Brewers, Smith didn't walk anybody and struck out 10. Smith now has 41 K's in nearly 29 innings. Smith is still very much under the radar because of the team he plays for. However, there aren't many lefties in the majors that are able to mix it up like Smith while still having tremendous command. To call him Chris Sale Jr. might be a bit of an overstatement, but Smith has great control over a four-seamer that routinely hits 94 MPH. His slider is filthy and it gives lefties fits. Smith also isn't afraid to backdoor a righty with it either. Smith's changeup is more than capable of fooling hitters on the major league level as his 21% swing and miss rate will attest to. 

Tyler Mahle (RHP) is coming off a seven-strikeout performance against the Twins, but that W bookended three losses and a no-decision in his other four trips to the mound. Mahle's only win at home came in his first start of the season in April, but it was cold then and the ball was not flying out of Great American Ball Park like it is now that temperatures are rising. Mahle has given up seven home runs and has a BABIP of .317, which makes him susceptible to allowing a bomb at any time especially while pitching at home. Those seven dingers given up are the second most allowed in the National League. Chicago's Kyle Hendricks and Mahle's teammate Homer Baily lead the NL with eight home runs against a piece. Great American Ball Park is bandbox and we will continue to target it, as there is huge value in backing the dog on the reverse run line in these hitter-friendly parks. Man, we get a great advantage on the hill here and could steal an easy win.

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