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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. We could play the Indians at +170 just in case the Tribe win by a run but the alternate run line has just so much appeal that we’ll take our chances that if Cleveland wins, it will do so by more than one run. What we know for sure is that the Indians scored 24 runs in a DH yesterday against the Blue Jays and they’re capable of scoring a bunch at any time.

We have faded Josh Tomlin twice already this year but we’ll now switch gears and get behind him because value dictates we do so. Tomlin goes from being the chalk to a significant underdog while pitching for the exact same team and if he gets blown up, so be it. At least we know that Tomlin will throw strikes with his elite control. His below-average swing and miss rate cap the number of strikeouts that he can accumulate, but he still misses bats (14%) with his curveball to provide some strikeouts. Tomlin finds the plate early and often and where those balls are hit is anyone’s guess but again, this has nothing to do with backing Tomlin and everything to do with backing an elite team against C.C. Sabathia.

Sabathia is off to good start on the surface with a 1.71 ERA after five starts and when combined with the team he pitches for, it creates a massive overlay. Truth is, Sabathia’s skills do not match the results. Sabathia's low ERA is built upon a low 23% hit rate and extremely high 91% strand rate. As a result, his xERA of 4.72 is three runs higher than his actual ERA. His luck-driven hit % and strand % rates are unsustainable. Sabathia isn’t unlike Tomlin. He only has 16 K’s in 26 innings while walking few and throwing 88 MPH heat with a 9% swing and miss rate. Like Tomlin, C.C. is at the mercy of batted balls in play and so far, Tomlin’s batted balls have found holes while C.C.’s hasn’t. Both pitchers rely on a lot of luck but the difference is that C.C. is spotting a big price and that is so wrong, especially against a team as good as the Indians are.

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