Toronto @ MINNESOTA
Toronto -104 over MINNESOTA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -104 BET365 -115 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -105

Posted at 10:40 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. After five starts, Marcus Stroman has an 8.88 ERA, which is bordering on insanity because he’s not that bad. If, at the start of the year before a single pitch was thrown, Stroman was this priced like this against a rookie making his MLB debut, Toronto would be in the -150 range but Stroman’s surface ERA provides us with an opportunity to get him at a bargain. Stroman’s xERA is 4.17, which is more than 4½ runs lower than his actual ERA. Hell, he’s even striking out more batters than ever with 25 K’s in 25 innings. Stroman has been giving up runs in bunches but he is a hit/strand candidate for much better days. The Blue Jay right-hander is solid against lefties, and that’s a boon against this Twinkies lineup. The Twins own a .690 OPS, with 9.8 strikeouts per game since April 7 and current Minnesota bats own a weak .681 against Stroman. This is very likely the start that Stroman gets right-sided in. 

The Twinkies are in panic mode. With 11 losses in their past 12 games, the Twins are bringing up guys much earlier than they wanted to and Fernando Romero is one of those guys. Romero takes the rotation spot of Phil Hughes for now. Romero is undersized, doesn’t feature the best arm speed, and his delivery has a whole lot of effort. There’s good sink on his fastball, which touches 98 and sits 95. It’s the stronger of his two primary offerings and can look like a double-plus pitch with devastating sink. The slider works in the high-80s but he has trouble at times staying on top of the pitch and in order to get to plus he’ll have to find better command of it. His change is a distant third pitch which projects to average and he’ll have to shore it up in order to neutralize lefties. Romero has done well keeping the ball on the ground and in the park, with seven career HR’s served up in 324.1 innings and groundball rates regularly in the low-to-mid 50s. Despite some trouble commanding his pitches, he has maintained an average control rate throughout his minor league career.

So, what we have here is a two-pitch pitcher making his MLB debut. Two-pitch pitchers rarely have success as a starter and this one is going to bring some nerves with him. You see all those relievers in the bullpen? Those are all former starters that could not develop a third pitch. Furthermore, Romero was pitching at Double-AA last year so all those minor league numbers are mostly from Single and Double-A ball. Marcus Stroman is a feisty and intense individual that gets extra jacked up when he’s being disrespected. He’s going to see that he’s evenly priced against a Double-AA pitcher and against a team that has lost 11 of 12. Nuff said.

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Our Pick

Toronto -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110