Toronto @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA -1½ +160 over Toronto

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +159 BET365 +160 SportsInteraction +160 5DIMES +160

Posted at 12:20 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. Aaron Sanchez is 1-2 with a 3.69 ERA and he’s even better on the road with a 2.57 ERA after five starts but be very careful about getting behind him here. Sanchez heads into Target Field with mid-level skills across the board. His highest score comes in the strikeout category and the Twins are in the bottom 10 in K% against RHP but his BB/K split of 6/7 over two games started on the road doesn't inspire much confidence. Overall, Sanchez has a BB/K split of 15/23 over 32 frames. After a warm start, the Jays look to be as ordinary as projected and our position is that Toronto should be getting bigger prices than this but Minnesota’s stock has sunk rapidly over the past few days.

After a hot start also, Minnesota has dropped nine of their past 10 games, including two of three to the 7-21 Reds this past weekend. In fact, Cinci scored 15 runs in the opener while adding another eight yesterday. However, prior to that, Minnesota lost seven games in a row to two of the hottest teams in baseball, Tampa and the Yanks so their nine losses in 10 games looks worse than it actually is. One could back the Twinkies here at the deflated price of -115 or so but we’ll choose to spot the extra half run with this big take-back.

Lance Lynn (RHP) returned from Tommy John surgery in 2017. Good fortune found him, as a 25% hit rate and a 78% strand rate allowed him to post a 3.43 ERA (4.61 xERA). In the second half, his strikeouts (6.3 K’s/9) and skills found a new low. Now with the Twins, it doesn’t appear that he is going to stop this downward trend after posting a 7.71 ERA in his first four starts, which provides us with another opportunity to buy low on a starter whose under the hood numbers are so much better than his surface stats. Lance Lynn has 22 K’s in 19 innings with a supported 14% swing and miss rate. He also has an upper-tier 52% groundball rate but a very unlucky 63% strand rate has torpedoed his surface stats and we’re the beneficiaries of that. Lynn is throwing better than ever without the results and he’ll now face a Jays’ lineup trending in the wrong direction.

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Our Pick

MINNESOTA -1½ +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110