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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. Josh Tomlin (RHP) has made four appearances this season with three of those coming as a starter. Known for pinpoint control, which is his only asset, Tomlin’s first-pitch strike rate is 58% this year and rising. In 13 innings, he has walked four and struck out seven. This is a very small sample size but even if we give him the benefit of the doubt, it’s still playing with fire. As a brittle soft-tosser who lives in the strike zone, in-season inconsistency is embedded in his profile. Tomlin’s profile is one of hard-hit balls and ERA fluctuations during the season. He also has a very weak 26% groundball rate and an xERA of 6.87. Josh Tomlin may warm up and get lucky again when the weather warms up but he’s always at the mercy of his defense, variation and batted balls in play and the Mariners very good offense should torch this washed up stiff. 

Marco Gonzales (LHP) is the kind of player we like to keep on our radar. Gonzales was a first-round pick by the Cardinals out of Gonzaga in the 2013 draft. He pitched in the majors by the end of his first full pro season in 2014. Then things went south, and stayed there for a while. Gonzales has re-emerged though but is still far under the radar so start buying when the time is right like it is here. Gonzales has a solid three-pitch mix that is highlighted by an elite changeup. His fastball sits only 88-91, but he commands it flawlessly and he uses a wicked curve to keep hitters thinking. The centerpiece of the repertoire, however, was and still is the changeup. Gonzales pitched so well in St. Louis that the Cardinals used him in six postseason appearances in 2014 and they had big plans for him in 2015 to either compete for a rotation spot or serve as a dominant late-inning reliever.

Best laid plans and all that, Gonzales developed some shoulder trouble to start the 2015 season and got a bit derailed. He did work his way back to the majors in 2015, but pitching through the shoulder difficulties likely contributed to his needing Tommy John surgery in 2016 and missing the entire season. He returned in 2017 and showed that there was a good bit remaining of what he had displayed prior to the injuries. He was traded by the Cardinals to the Mariners for Tyler O’Neill in a swap of guys who carried upside potential but also big question marks. His velocity actually ticked up a bit and his fastball averaged 92 in his 40 MLB innings in 2017. His signature changeup remained a potent out-pitch as well and this year it has all come together. Gonzales’ 4/27 BB/K split in 23 frames is no fluke. Like Josh Tomlin, Gonzales has pinpoint control but the difference is that he has nasty movement while Tomlin throws straight and weak. The kicker here is surface stats, as Gonzales brings his 5.56 ERA to the hill and because if that he’s a dog to Josh Tomlin. Pay much more attention to his league leading x2.89 ERA and don’t miss this great value bet.

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