Colorado @ MIAMI
MIAMI +101 over Colorado

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +116 BET365 +115 SportsInteraction +115 5DIMES +115

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. Chad Bettis (RHP) was limited to just 46 IP in 2017 after learning in March that his testicular cancer had spread. He has begun 2018 in fine fashion, sporting a 2.40 ERA in 30 innings but the skills do not support the results. Walks have been a problem in 2018 and it starts with his weak 55% first-pitch strike rate. He only has 20 K’s in 30 frames and his groundball rate has waned since reaching a career-high in 2016, which has coincided with his decision to stop throwing his sinker. He utilized the pitch about 10% of the time prior to 2017 and it was effective.  A hefty dose of hit percentage/strand percentage good fortune has been vital, as evidenced by the wide 2.40/4.57 ERA/xERA gap. It’s troubling to see the downward trend in velocity since 2014 too. Bettis has posted a shiny ERA and WHIP in the early stages of 2018, but barring adjustments, the shoddy underlying skills and lost velocity paint a rather gloomy picture. Regardless, we’ll be rooting for the two-time cancer survivor but we’re not going to bet him because he’s not good enough to be road chalk playing for a Rockies’ team that once again looks awful on the road.

Yesterday we pegged the Marlins with Caleb Smith starting but he was pushed back a day because Wei-Yin Chen was ready so we’ll rinse and repeat here. Enter once again, Caleb Smith and his 0-3 record with a 5.82 ERA after five starts. Smith has walked 15 batters in 22 innings but don’t put emphasis on that, as he did not walk a batter in his last start and has an outstanding 70% first-pitch strike rate. Additionally, Smith has never had control issues before. Simply credit two cold-weather starts in Philadelphia (6 walks) and New York (5 walks) for his high walk totals. In his last game, indoors at Milwaukee, Smith struck out 10 Brewers in six innings and now has 32 K’s in 22 innings with a supported 15% swing and miss rate. Primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher, Smith has added a cutter to his repertoire to give him three legit pitches. His fastball is his best pitch. He’s able to command the pitch to both sides of the plate and use some deception in his delivery to play the pitch up. Dude is dealing 94 MPH heat and comes in with an xERA of 3.02 when you exclude those two aforementioned starts in frigid temperatures. This is a hugely under the radar pitcher with tremendous upside that will be taking back big prices for the most part in most of his starts over the next four to six weeks because the cold weather wreaked havoc on his surface stats. That’s he’s a very small underdog here is also telling us to bet the Fish here.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

MIAMI +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110