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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

4:10 PM EST. The Padres are 10-18 and their stock is lower than most teams because they’ve bad for a long time and because this market rarely pays attention to them. We picked the Padres to go over their projected total this year and while we would’ve preferred a better start, we’re not concerned in the least. This is a dangerous team that has played one of the toughest schedules in the league and that has faced some of the best pitchers too. The Friars got a break in facing difficult starters last night when they saw Jason Vargas of these Mets and all they did was torch him and the rest of the staff for 12 runs. Both Wil Myers and Manuel Margot are back and they join a potentially potent lineup that is going to score some runs. They get to face another not so difficult starter here in Zack Wheeler (RHP)

It’s been a slow return from 2015 TJS for Wheeler, as elbow soreness lingers, but even a healthy outlook is worrisome. Control often is last to come back post-surgery, put further at risk by his pre-injury wildness. Now three years since going under knife, that 2014 breakout is a distant memory. Wheeler isn’t fooling anyone. He has walked six and struck out 12 in 17 frames with an 8% swing and miss rate (4% in his last start) and a 40% groundball rate. Wheeler was awful this past spring as well, compiling an 8.10 ERA and that long road back from where he once was seems like it’s never going to happen. Wheeler comes in with a 4.24/5.79 ERA/xERA split after three starts.

A starter throughout his minor league career, Bryan Mitchell (RHP) has been deployed mostly out of the bullpen during his time in the majors over the past four seasons. Despite a fastball that averages 96 MPH, the results have been less than impressive, as he's posted a 4.94 ERA and very shaky command across 53 appearances (14 starts). Mitchell created a little buzz this past spring following his move to the National League, accompanied by an expected transition back to a starting role. While he possesses a live arm, as well as a ground ball lean, the rest of the package is in need of some refining. To this point, Mitchell has struggled with his control over five starts by walking 19 batters in 25 innings and therein lies the problem. Here’s a starter that has a 53% groundball rate and 96 MPH heat with life but has trouble throwing strikes. In his last start in Colorado, he got the win after issuing just two walks in five full. We would never recommend a starter with control issues if said starter was favored but as a dog at home, the risk diminishes and Mitchell is a starter worth having on one’s radar.

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