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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. There are many things to like about the Cardinals here with the first being that the Pirates are in a letdown spot after rallying from a 5-0 deficit last night and eventually getting a walk-off win in extra frames. Very often, teams’ “walking off” lose the next game out. Next, Trevor Williams goes for the Pirates and his misleading surface numbers (3-1 with a 2.15 ERA) do not come close to matching his weak skills. There is guaranteed regression coming. Williams is a former 2nd rounder that got his first full MLB stint last season when he started 25 games for the Pirates while appearing in relief in six others for a combined 150 innings pitched. The takeaway? Meh. There was nothing in his skill set to suggest prior upside was lurking, as his skills were average across the board. Even his sub-indicators showed few glimmers of hope and nothing has changed this year, as once again, his surface ERA is not backed up by any skills support. In 29 innings covering five starts, Williams has a weak BB/K split of 15/21. He was a weak groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 37%/25%/38%. His foundation gets even more wobbly one level lower with a 5% swing and miss rate, 57% first pitch strikes and 41% ball%. An unsustainable 82% strand rate and .228 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) are the reason for Williams’ success, thus rendering him as another overachieving arm worthy of selling.

Enter Jack Flaherty, a name you are very likely going to be hearing a lot more about. Flaherty went 0-2 with a 6.33 ERA in 21 frames for the Cards last year. That MLB cup of coffee didn't taste good, but his three-level ascent was impressive and we’re not going to put any emphasis whatsoever on a starter’s first exposure to MLB, as everyone reacts differently. Flaherty made one start on April 3 this year before being sent back down so that Adam Wainwright could slot back into the rotation. However, Wainwright (elblow) was placed on the 10-day disabled list with right elbow inflammation on April 22, thus opening the door for Flaherty once again. Back on April 3, Flaherty started and went five full innings, walking one, striking out 9 (!) and allowing one earned run on six hits in Milwaukee. This will be start number two on the year for him, only this time he may stick around for good.

Jack Flaherty started 2017 at Double-A, had great success, and then pitched 85 innings at Triple-A Memphis in the tough Pacific Coast League. Didn't matter: he pitched well there too, as he held his high strikeout rate while holding batters to a BAA against of just .209. Flaherty stands 6'4" and weighs 205 pounds and he is a good athlete. The former first-rounder has a solid four-pitch mix and he throws strikes. While none of his pitches are truly plus, and thus he is not likely to become an ace, he has a very good chance of reaching his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter in the majors. He knows how to pitch, his mechanics are repeatable, and he has shown consistent success all the way up the minor league ladder. His fastball only reaches the low-90s mph, but he knows how to mix in his curve, slider and change-up to keep batters off balance. For his minor league career his oppBA is just .239 and that has shown in his low WHIPs. He knows how to throw strikes with four pitches, he rarely walks batters, and hitters have a hard time squaring up against him. In four minor league seasons, his ERA is 2.77 with a 1.18 WHIP, which is even more impressive than it looks because it came in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast league. This kid is major-league ready and is very worthy of getting behind before his stock shoots up.

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