Milwaukee @ CHICAGO
Milwaukee +141 over CHICAGO

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +141 BET365 +135 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +140

Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

8:05 PM EST. We have absolutely no idea what is going to happen in this game but there are some things we do know for sure. For sure, the Brewers are 16-9 while the Cubbies are a game over .500 at 11-10. For sure, Milwaukee is in better form. For sure, Kyle Hendricks (RHP) is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA while Chase Anderson (RHP) is 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA. For sure, you will overpay to get behind the Kendricks and the Cubbies here and that’s all that we care about. That prompts us to play the Crew.

There is no question that Hendricks is overpriced because of a two-year history that was very good on the surface (mediocre below it) and because he plays for the Cubs. His surface ERA after four starts suggests there isn't any big reason for panic but the risks he carried coming into 2018 have not gone away. His skills have eroded significantly in the early-going, especially his control but given his history of pinpoint control, it's likely that the cold weather has played a part in his inability to get the ball over the plate early (58% first-pitch strike rate) or often (37% ball%). Still, Hendricks’ mid-80s fastball and lack of swinging strikes (8%) both suggest that he's more likely to settle in as a mid-rotation guy than the anchor he has been the last couple of seasons. His xERA shows that last season was another season with soft skills aided by a high strand rate. Kyle Hendricks last two seasons of xERAs and his early xERA this year creates risk that someone will overpay and get burnt; don't let it be you.

Chase Anderson is very much like Kyle Hendricks. Anderson is coming off a breakout season on the surface in 2017 during which he delivered a 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He has started the season how he left things in 2017 (3.25 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) but the underlying support for him to continue at that pace just isn't there. He's not missing enough bats (9% swing and miss rate), nor is he getting strike one (57%) enough. A 20% hit rate  and 83% strand rate have saved him for the most part but he’s pitching for a very warm team and he’s not the one spotting an inflated price. Invest.

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Our Pick

Milwaukee +141 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.82)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110