Atlanta @ CINCINNATI
Atlanta -103 over CINCINNATI

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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

6:40 PM EST. Please note the earlier starting times at many parks this year including this one, so the kids can get home at a decent time. At least that’s what they are trying to sell us cause they believe we’re a bunch of idiots. The reason that all these teams are starting 30 minutes earlier is so that fans will have no time to eat at home or go out for dinner before the game, thus forcing their fans to eat at the ballpark. They couldn’t give a rat’s ass what time your kid(s) get to bed.

Matt Wisler (RHP) makes just his second start of the year after throwing a seven-inning, two-hit gem against the Mets six days ago. Wisler wasn’t even supposed be in the rotation but an ankle sprain to Luiz Gohara has opened up the door. Wisler was once a top Braves prospect but has struggled in the majors to the tune of a career 5.05 xERA so we’re not going to put a lot of emphasis on one start but it is worth noting that he did not walk a single batter against New York while striking out eight. Wisler was 2015’s preseason No. 1 prospect for San Diego before he came over to the Braves in the Craig Kimbrel trade. Some guys take longer than others to hit their stride so we’ll take a wait and see approach regarding Wisler but he’s on our radar as a former #1 with a great minor-league pedigree. Furthermore, Cincinnati owns a strikeout-heavy .581 OPS vs. righty pitching. Besides all that, this wager is much more about fading Brandon Finnegan (LHP).

The Reds activated Brandon Finnegan (shoulder) from the 10-day disabled list on April 14 and he was shaky in his return. He allowed five earned runs and 10 baserunners, including four walks, in 4.1 IP, suggesting he was rushed back before being ready. His rotation spot could be vulnerable, as LHP Amir Garrett has pitched well in relief to date, and showed stretches of effectiveness as a rookie starter in 2017 before suffering a hip injury which required off-season surgery. Control and command have proved challenging for Finnegan throughout his brief MLB career and has continued this year, as Finnegan has walked eight batters already in seven frames while striking out just six. Finnegan may have piqued interest in the opening week last year with a 9-K debut, but a shoulder strain shelved him in April, again in June and then he had surgery on the OTHER shoulder in July. Even with a healthy return and that's a leap, BB’s remain a major issue, while his once-promising groundball rate vanished in 2016. With a 7.81 xERA after two starts and a weak 7% swing and miss rate, Finnegan is great fade material when he’s favored or evenly priced against anyone and that applies here.

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Our Pick

Atlanta -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)

Detroit +103 over Tampa Bay
Seattle +107 over Texas