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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

8:15 PM EST. Michael Wacha (RHP) had a solid rebound season last year after shoulder woes and an eroding xERA had pointed towards the pen as his likely destination. A surge in first-pitch strikes without a swing and miss dip says he can do it again. The question is durability, as he has only averaged 160 innings over the last three seasons and chronic shoulder issues don't tend to go away. We absolutely do not like what the numbers are telling is this year regarding Wacha, as everything is trending the wrong way. That’s a sure sign his shoulder is bothering him again. Wacha has a weak BB/K split of 11/15 in 21 frames. His swinging strikes are way down to 8% and his WHIP (1.45) and xERA (5.03) are way up. Things went off the rails for Wacha in 2016, as the shoulder woes that afflicted him in 2014 resurfaced (stress reaction), limiting him to an ugly 5.09 xERA in 138 innings and he’s on that same path this year. Wacha has allowed hard contact through four middling starts, the first of which was a disaster vs. NYM. The Mets have been at their best against RHPs.

Meanwhile, Steven Matz (LHP) just keeps getting better and stronger. Matz has an outstanding 23 K’s in 18 frames over four starts. He also brings an elite 55% groundball rate but a surface ERA of 4.42 has masked his solid skills. That works to our benefit here, as the market is unaware of just how good Matz has been. He comes in with elite underlying numbers across the board including an xERA of 3.11, which puts him in the same range as Justin Verlander, who is a better than 2-1 favorite today. A significant correction to the good in Matz’s ERA is forthcoming and if it doesn’t start here, we’ll stick with it until it does.

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