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Posted at 12:10 PM EST.

6:10 PM EST. Note the start time. Tyler Chatwood (RHP) is a starter that moves from Coors Field, where he pitched for years, to Wrigley Field or to wherever else the Cubbies play and that makes Chatwood an interesting guy. Chatwood has yet to post a full-season of skills at a level worthy of betting on when he’s favored but thanks to his high groundball rates, his xERA shows he's at least been worthy of some interest. His move from Coors to Wrigley Field will garner a lot of attention, especially since his home ERA for the past two years was 6.07 while his away ERA was 2.57 but when you look at his underlying skills during that same time frame, the difference is less stark. Apart from fewer home runs, the biggest driver of his terrific away ERA was an unsustainably low 23% hit rate. Chatwood is still only 28, so improving his skills with his change of scenery isn't entirely out of the question and there are some positive signs indeed, like 18 K’s in 16 frames and a 50% groundball rate and it’s not like the Indians are killing it. In a just completed four-game set in Baltimore over the weekend against that brutal staff,  Cleveland scored 14 runs in four games and seven of those came in one game. That said, this is more about fading Josh Tomlin (RHP) than it is about getting behind Chatwood.

Tomlin has made three appearances this season with two of those coming as a starter. Known for pinpoint control, which is his only asset, Tomlin’s first-pitch strike rate is a mere 54% this year. In nine innings, he has walked four and struck out four. This is a very small sample size but even if we give him the benefit of the doubt, it’s still playing with fire. As a brittle soft-tosser who lives in the strike zone, in-season inconsistency is embedded in his profile. Tomlin’s profile is one of hard-hit balls and ERA fluctuations during the season. He also has a very weak 28% groundball rate and an xERA of 7.54. Josh Tomlin may warm up and get lucky again when the weather warms up but he’s always at the mercy of his defense, variation and batted balls in play. The Cubbies are dangerous enough to exploit that weak profile.

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