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Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

1:35 PM EST. If a favorite is being undersold on the money line price, as the Phillies are here, they are also being undersold on the run-line and so that’s the way we’ll play this one. After a very nice start, the Pirates have lost five of six and the first three games of this series. That funk coincides with the loss of Josh Harrison, who went on the DL April 16. Over the past three games at this hitter’s park, the Bucs have scored three runs in three games. The reason they’re getting so much credit is because their starter, Trevor Williams (RHP) comes in with a 1.93 ERA after four starts but it’s not legit.

Trevor Williams is a former high draft pick who has looked the part so far (1.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 23 IP). Don't fall in love with those marks because they’re luck driven and not backed up by any skills support. In 23 frames, Williams has walked 10 and struck out 14 for a weak BB/K ratio. His foundation gets even more wobbly one level lower with a 5% swing and miss rate, 60% first-pitch strikes and 41% ball%. His 85% strand rate is the reason his ERA is so low along with hard hit balls being hit right at people. This is absolutely an overachieving arm worthy of selling at its highest value, which is right now. 

Nick Pivetta (RHP) went 8-10 with a 6.02 ERA in 133 innings for the Phillies last season. It was a rude awakening in his rookie season, although a trifecta of misfortune (hit%, strand%, hr/f) and a 4.33 MLB xERA all hint it should've gone better. Pivetta's skills were excellent in the second half with 9.3 K’s/9 and 46% grounders to go along with a second half xERA of 4.02. Pivetta has been even better in his first four starts this year, as he has a magnificent BB/K split of 2/21 through 22 frames. That’s equals to 8.7 K’s/9 and 0.8 BB/9. He comes in with an xERA 3.08 and the same 46% groundball rate that he had through 133 innings last year. Nick Pivetta is legit while Trevor Williams is not. We also get hot team v cold team. 

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