Pittsburgh @ PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh -109 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -109 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -110

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. The Pirates will hopefully take a page out of the Penguins playbook and whack Philadelphia, which is precisely what we expect here, as Jake Arrieta (RHP) is getting far too much credit in this line. Arrieta is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA after two starts but don’t buy it. Things are headed south for him in a big way and here’s why:

His xERA is trending in the wrong direction. His swing and miss/first-pitch strike rates are headed in the wrong direction. A three mph drop in velocity compared to 2017. Arrieta has walked four and struck out six in 11 frames with a weak 5% swing and miss rate. His xERA is closer to five than it is to three.

Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon (RHP) has posted some of the most electric stuff among all starters in the game thus far with a BB/K split of 5/18 in 20 innings with an elite 59% groundball rate and elite 2.78 xERA. He’s missing bats at a high rate (13%) and is throwing strikes too. At age 26 and with top-shelf raw stuff, Taillon remains a good breakout target for 2018 and surely a better choice in an evenly priced game in a hitter’s park against that below average starter the Phillies will use.

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Our Pick

Pittsburgh -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110