Cleveland v Minnesota
Minnesota +111 over Cleveland

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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. The Indians are 9-6 and have won six of seven but don't fall victim to those results. The Tribe beat up on Detroit and Kansas City where they have six of those nine wins. When facing solid starters, like the one they’ll face here, the offense has been non-existent and so, too, have the victories. The other three victories for Cleveland this year occurred against starters, JC Ramirez, James Paxton and Jake Odorizzi while they have lost to Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Ian Kennedy and Marcus Stroman. Jose Berrios is better than all of the above.

Cleveland has solid pitching and Carlos Carrasco needs no introduction but the offenses’ sluggish start might be just as legit. Though Edwin Encarnacion (DH) hit three HR in two games back on Apr 1–2, he has gone ice cold, hitting 3 for his last 35, hacking his way to 13 Ks in his last 10 games. Brandon Guyer represents the current "muscle" on the Indians bench, which isn't saying much when Rajai Davis, recent call-up Greg Allen and utility man Erik Gonzalez are the only other options. Jason Kipnis is batting .169 and Yonder Alonzo is batting .196. The only batter with good numbers is Michael Brantley and we repeat that the Tribe has faced a slew of weak starters but won’t have that luxury here. 

Jose Berrios has 24 K’s and one walk issued over 21 innings and three starts. Berrios comes in with a skills supported 2.18/2.48 ERA/xERA split. His xERA is the best mark in MLB this year among starters with two or more starts. Yeah, it’s small sample but his pedigree and skills always suggested this was possible. With a sub-3.00 ERA and 9 K’s/9 in first nine starts last year, it appeared he may have figured things out. However, there was still work to do, as he posted weaker numbers the rest of the way while his other skills took a slight turn for the worse. Berrios has come back more refined and confident. Scouting reports always said his upside was huge and those dividends are paying off. It’s bordering on preposterous that Cleveland is favored here and therefore the Twinkies must be played.

Note that this game is being played in Puerto Rico, which suits us fine because we get the better offense and superior pitcher at a price. 

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Our Pick

Minnesota +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110