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Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

10:05 PM EST. It seems like Tyler Skaggs (LHP) has been around forever. He earned a high prospect back in 2012 but has struggled to stay healthy since (282 DL days over the past 3 seasons). At 26, it’s still possible, as he still has several things going for him. Skaggs’ control has been solid, with first-pitch consistently in the 60% range. Velocity is not diminished post TJS, sitting around 92 MPH in 2017 and in early 2018. Groundball rates have consistently been in the mid-40’s. Each of these marks is right around the threshold you want for success as a SP, but consider that much of this history was written while his health was uncertain. Skaggs’ recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2015 was a long one, as he had setbacks with both elbow and shoulder stiffness in 2016. Poised again to hold a starting role, an oblique injury cost him half of 2017 so it’s hard to know if his performance over those two seasons (26 GS, 4.38 xERA, 8.4 K’s/9, 3.4 BB’s/9) represents his true ability or a diminished version of it. Skaggs now comes into this start with his stock a little too high because of his 2-0 record and 1.69 ERA. However, he faced Oakland, Cleveland and then Texas and walked 0 batters in his first start, two in his second and four in his third. Skaggs may indeed be feeling healthy for the first time in years but the skills are that of a #3 or #4 starter and the Red Sox are primed to expose that.

Rick Porcello (RHP) is in good form and has a strong rating for this night start in L.A. The Angels’ righty-heavy lineup plays to a Porcello strength. Porcello had a rough season in 2017 (4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) but those results present an interesting buying opportunity. He actually generated more swings and misses (10%) and first-pitch (67%) strikes in 2017 than in any season prior, cementing the great command he has shown in each of the last five seasons. He also owns that great command against both LH and RH batters over the last three seasons after struggling against lefties earlier in his career. Porcello has one walk issued in 20 innings to go along with 17 K’s and a 52% groundball rate. He also pitches for what might be the best team in MLB and taking back a price with him here against the misleading surface stats of Skaggs is a bet that must be made if we’re playing value only.

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