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Cincinnati @ MILWAUKEE
Cincinnati +120 over MILWAUKEE

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +120 BET365 +115 SportsInteraction +115 5DIMES +118

Posted at 1:15 PM EST.

7:40 PM EST. The Reds have dropped seven in a row and have the worst record in baseball with two wins in 15 tries so far. Getting on the road and playing indoors in Milwaukee might be the best thing for them right now after playing all 15 games in unseasonably bad and sometimes frigid weather. Cinci’s starter, Luis Castillo is 0-2 with an ERA of 7.20 and when combined with the Reds’ horrible record, the result is a bad price in our favor.

Like the rest of the Reds, Castillo started all of his games (three so far) in frigid weather so we’re not going to put any emphasis whatsoever on his starts in which gripping the ball the way he wanted to was out of the question. Just hit the reset button on Luis Castillo because he’s a prime breakout target. He has not delivered on his breakout upside yet but we’re exercising patience, as his overall skills are good and he's missing bats at a very high rate (15%). A 47% strand rate and 24% hr/f have wreaked havoc on his surface stats. Nothing has changed in his repertoire, as he utilized a 98 mph fastball, hard slider, sinker and vastly improved change-up (23% swing and miss, 59% grounders) to great success in 2017. His ability to induce an extreme amount of groundballs with lots of strikeouts and respectable control is immensely appealing and he therefore must be played when taking back a price against such an inferior starter.

Brent Suter is 28-years-old and made his MLB debut in 2016, when he threw 21.2 innings for the Brewers, mostly as a reliever. Last year, Suter rode the AAA shuttle for the 1st half, then stayed up for good in June. The classic "crafty lefty" skills profile shows a guy living on the edge with fringy stuff and pinpoint control. Strikeout rate is the key for him, as he can survive at 2017 levels, but not much lower. If his previous sub-tipping-point strikeout rate returns, he’s not going to make it to June. Suter has a 5.24 xERA after three starts, not to mention a troublesome 1.43 WHIP. He’s not interesting as the chalk even a little bit but all the misleading surface stats on both the Reds and their starter are allowing us to take back some great value here.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

 

 

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