Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:15 PM EST.
10:10 PM EST. The Dodgers are 5-9 overall and and are near the bottom of the league in several offensive categories. There will be a correction to the good coming but the timing for that is not right yet, as the Dodgers are still a significant road favorite. Meanwhile, San Diego has is coming off a sweep of the Giants to improve to 7-10. They scored five or more runs in each game (at Petco) and scored a total of 20 runs over the three-game set.
The Friars were going to going to have to cobble together their rotation all season, but Dlnelson Lamet was one of their better / experienced young arms -- and they were hoping he'd take regular turns for most of the season. As it turns out, he didn't even make it out of spring training whole. We're spit-balling right now as to who will take up his remaining slack, but it's easy to bump up Joey Lucchesi, Lamet's immediate replacement and Tyson Ross, both of whom have been pleasant surprises in the early going. Long-reliever Jordan Lyles will likely get another rotation opportunity, though he's been so effective out of the pen, perhaps not. Matt Strahm and Colin Rea are on the mend from significant injuries (torn left patella, right shoulder strain, respectively) with no ETAs yet. Prospect Eric Lauer will try to impress from Triple-A. That brings us to today’s starter, Robert Erlin. Keep an eye on this long-reliever and injury comebacker, who has posted a 2.38/2.98 ERA/xERA over his first 11 innings despite his soft-tossing ways. Erlin throws strikes, he has a 14% swing and miss rate with a BB/K split of 2/11 over 11 innings, not to mention an elite, off the charts groundball rate of 65%.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is coming off a six-inning, one-hit gem against the Athletics and as a result of that great performance, he and the Dodgers are overpriced here. Out of nowhere, Ryu came up with his best game in years. A first half HR barrage hurt Hyun-Jin Ryu last year, as he struggled horribly versus lefties early on and his formerly fine control was missing all season. Ryu is now 31-years-old and has been pitching professionally since 2006. Between the Korean League and MLB, he’s thrown close to 1800 innings, which is more innings than starting to break down active pitchers, Johnny Cueto, Jason Hammel, Tim Lincecum, and Yovanni Gallardo among others. In his first start of the year, Ryu walked five batters while striking out two, which led to a 2.73 WHIP. His swing and miss rate in that start was 3%. Last game he struck out eight and walked one, which is a complete contrast to what he did in his first start. Somewhere in between those two starts is the real Hyun-Jin Ryu but let’s not ignore that his WHIP all of last season was 1.37, which is above our 1.30 danger threshold and he was very shaky in his only road start this year. We’re willing to roll the dice here on this live underdog.
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SAN DIEGO +128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.56)