Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:00 PM EST.
7:15 PM EST. The Angels are now 12-3 to start the season, which includes eight straight wins on the road. That matches the 1979 squad for the best start in franchise history, but as the Ws pile up you are going to pay a premium to back them. Injuries have limited Garrett Richards to just six starts in each of the last two seasons, but he's already toe'd the slab three times in 2018. While 1-0, Richards has had trouble with his command after allowing 12 walks over 15 innings. An ERA of 4.20 doesn't look good on paper and under the hood, it doesn't get much better. Richards' strand percentage is way up so far this season at 86.5%. Over the last three season's he averaged 70%, which is close to the league average. Richards' xERA has also skyrocketed in this early season, as it's up .77 points over last year, which means he's more prone to giving up the long ball than just about any other time over the last few seasons. Not surprisingly, Richards' home run to fly ball ratio is at 30%, which is by far his highest since his 2011 season.
The Royals are just 3-9, but Jakob Junis has been one of the bright spots after accounting for 2/3 of his teams wins. Junis hasn't allowed a run this season after giving up just four hits over 14 shutout innings. Junis was a little shaky in his last start against the Mariners, but he was able to avoid trouble after giving up a pair of walks and hitting three batsmen over seven innings of work. Junis is averaging just 5.7k/9 but his lifetime mark of 7.1 shows that there is still room for improvement, which is positive considering his hot start. Junis' .111 BABIP and 0.0% HR/FB are likely to regress, but we believe he's got the goods. On the surface, Junis might look like a soft-tosser that has been extremely lucky so far this season, but beyond the numbers, Junis is just one of those guys you have to watch pitch to see why he's so effective. He has great stuff with tons of natural movement and he's a must bet when taking back a price at home.
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KANSAS CITY +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)