Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:15 PM EST.
6:40 PM EST. Let’s call a spade a spade and label the Reds as a complete and utter mess right now. Cincinnati’s players are playing with their heads down. They are swinging at stuff that is not even close. Adam Duvall is batting .103 while leadoff man, Billy Hamilton is batting .167. The Reds are off to their worst start (2-10) since 1955 and we doubt they’ll snap out of it here against Luke Weaver (RHP). Weaver went 7-2 with a 3.88 ERA in 60 innings last year. This former first-rounder got even better in his second taste of the majors. That near-4 ERA in the bigs last year was a direct result of hit % and hr/f misfortune. Late-season and in two starts this season, Weaver’s dominance comes with zero skill cracks, putting him in line for a full-season breakout in 2018.
Tyler Mahle (RHP) will take the mound here with the weight of this franchise’s horrible start on his shoulders. He’s simply too green and not good enough to carry that. Mahle is 1-1 after two starts but a weak 8% swing and miss rate and a concerning 32%/29%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate at this park spells doom and gloom. Mahle is 23 years-old and brings a very decent minor-league pedigree but has not been able to duplicate that at this level in four starts last season and two more starts this season with a combined xERA of 6.07.
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St. Louis -1½ +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)