Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:10 AM EST.
7:10 PM EST. The Mets are among the offensive leaders in team OPS, runs scored and team BA and will face a starter, turned reliever, turned desperate starter here in Jarlin Garcia (LHP). Garcia’s three-pitch repertoire and strikeout rate played better as reliever in the first half of last season than as a starter in the minors in the second half. His weak first-pitch strike rate says that his second half control regression was inevitable. More troubling was a flare-up of an old bicep issue that really burned him (16.71 ERA in Sept). Garcia has worked 10 innings out of the Marlins pen as a long relief guy and has walked four and struck out eight but a 45% first-pitch strike rate is hugely concerning for a starter. The Marlins will be fortunate to get four innings out of him here and the pen behind him is just as likely to blow up. Funny thing is, the Marlins are almost playable at the price being offered because New York’s start is also in big trouble.
Before the season started, the Mets optioned Zack Wheeler (RHP) to Class AAA Las Vegas on March 24 to serve as a starter in the minors, although pitching coach Dave Eiland said Wheeler could be used as either a starter or reliever if he is recalled. Wheeler missed virtually all of 2015 and 2016, first with Tommy John surgery and then associated rehab-related injuries. He returned in 2017, but struggled to the tune of 5.45 xERA, a 4.2 BB’s/9 and 8.4 K’s/9. Still, he was believed to be the likely fifth starter for the Mets when Jason Vargas was injured and subsequently lost time with an illness. However, Wheeler was awful in the spring, compiling an 8.10 ERA. This slow return from 2015 TJS continues for Zack Wheeler, as elbow soreness lingers, but even a healthy outlook is worrisome. Control often is last to come back post-surgery, put further at risk by his pre-injury wildness. Now three years since going under knife, that 2014 breakout is a distant memory, making Wheeler a high-risk dart throw now. Looks like a beatable number to us
Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
N.Y. Mets/MIAMI over 8½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)