Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:15 PM EST.
6:10 PM EST. Note the 6:10 PM EST, as the Indians along with a few other teams are starting earlier so that “kids can get home earlier and get to bed on time”. At least that’s what they want you to believe. Translation: We’re not going to give you time to go out for dinner or to eat at home so we can grab that money too.
Matt Boyd (LHP) gets this start for the Tigers and he’s a risky investment because of his heavy fly-ball lean but in these frigid nights, we’re willing to roll with him for at least two reasons. One, the Indians are batting .158 as a team so everyone is gripping their bats tight and two, Josh Tomlin cannot be favored in this range. We’ll get back to Tomlin is a sec. Truth is, Matt Boyd has looked good in flashes in each of the previous two seasons, including in his first outing of 2018 (1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP in 6 IP). While he didn't seem to miss many bats on the surface (one strikeout), his excellent 13% swing and miss rate suggested otherwise. Boyd remains a high-risk play but does carry more upside than one might realize.
Seasonal xERA consistency is Josh Tomlin’s (RHP) baseline, but it doesn't feel that way, as he keeps going through ruts. As a brittle soft-tosser who lives in the strike zone, in-season inconsistency is embedded in his profile. He’s already nursing a back ailment and let’s not forget his 6.17 ERA over the first half of last season. A profile like Tomlin’s is absolutely worth fading at prices like this.
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Detroit +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)