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Toronto @ BALTIMORE
Toronto -1 +131 over BALTIMORE

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +131 BET365 +-1½ +125 SportsInteraction -1½ +125 5DIMES -1½ +125

Posted at 12:15 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. A juiced ball fueled a rash of blister issues and Aaron Sanchez (RHP) "led" the league with three blister-related DL trips, essentially tanking his season. However, his raw stuff is great (95 mph heat, hammer curve), but hasn't fully translated (weak swing and miss, modest first pitch strike). However, in two starts this year, Sanchez’s swinging strike rate is up to 12% and was 16% in his last start. Furthermore, the Orioles collectively have never seen a pitch they didn’t like, as they lead the majors in K’s (and it’s not close) with 129 already. Sanchez’s stock was very high going into last year but is a fraction of that price this year. We’ll use his 2016 xERA as a guide and buy before it rises.

After phasing out his slider and restoring the sinker to his array of pitches last season, Andrew Cashner (RHP) posted 11 quality starts, a 3.02 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 15 starts from July 1 forward. He did it despite the majors' lowest K/BB rate (1.34) among ERA qualifiers, going with a pitch-to-contact approach that relied heavily upon his defense and good fortune on balls in play. Good fortune he had, as he allowed a .241 BABIP and 10 unearned runs during that magical 15-start stretch, things that are wholly unsustainable. Now in Baltimore, Cashner will again call a hitter-friendly ballpark his home, but he'll have a slightly worse defense behind him. He’s also given up four jacks already in 11 innings. The upside Cashner used to carry is long gone. His skills were horrible last year and they don’t look better this year.

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Our Pick

Toronto -1 +131 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.62)

 

 

bet365

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Sports Interaction