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Posted at 6:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Last season we played more baseball totals than ever before and we’re committed to doing the same this year and if it works out, we’ll start posting even more. We’ve been studying weather conditions and how it affects the flight of the baseball and now have the resources to put that to use.

The effects of humidity on air density is very slight and is actually opposite what it is commonly purported to be. The common reputation of humidity is that it is heavy; however, this is a misnomer. Humidity is actually light for a projectile to fly through, because there is more hydrogen in humid air than in dry air, which contains a larger percentage of nitrogen. And, of course, nitrogen is heavier than hydrogen.

There is a scale that takes into account humidity, as well as temperature and elevation-related barometric pressure that gives us an Air Density Index reading at every ballpark or zip code and the reading today at CAMDEMN YARDS for their game versus the Blue Jays at 1:00 PM EST is 76.23. Keep in mind that Coors Field is generally in the low 50’s while almost all other parks are between 60 and 80. Also keep in mind that low Air Density Index means high scoring and a high reading means low scoring. This is an extremely high reading. We recorded all the Air Density readings at every park last year and here is a small sample of some of the higher reading at Camden Yards last season.

Camden Yards 21201

72.27 3-2 (15/0)

68.35 5-4

63.43 4-2 (21-1)

68.71 6-4 (18-4)

69.92 5-4 (20/4)

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The above sample shows Air-Density Reading – followed by the final score and then hits/home-runs in parenthesis. That number beside Camden Yards is the zip code of where the stadium is located to give us the most accurate reading available. You’ll notice the two highest Air Density readings we had on record last year at Camden Yards was between 69.92 and 72.27 and both those games went under the posted total. 

Today that Air Density Index, which takes into consideration, elevation, humidity, current temperature and barometric pressure is the highest we have seen it Camden Yards (76.23) and with the wind blowing in and two quality starters going, this appears to us to be a very strong play.

Please keep in mind that we’re still experimenting with these readings when applying them to baseball totals. We’re fine tuning as we go along but we’ve put in the work and have a clear understanding of how this all works. We have studied and recorded results for two years. We’re not even going to consider the pitchers too much because the oddsmakers have already done that work for us but if our readings on the conditions are correct, this game is supposed to come in well under the number because weather plays a massive roll on whether games go over or under the number.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

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