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Toronto @ TEXAS
Toronto -1 +137 over TEXAS

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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

2:05 PM EST. Jaime Garcia (LHP) is coming off a stellar Blue Jays debut, striking out seven across six innings of one-run ball in a home start against the White Sox. Garcia did what he does best was last time out, getting all but two of his batted-ball outs on the ground. With a solid ability to induce grounders, Garcia should be minimally impacted by Globe Life Park in Arlington and the Rangers’ offense has struggled out of the gate this season. Overall, Garcia is looking like an attractive option here and may end up being a great signing by the Blue Jays. Garcia put up impressive numbers last game that was fully supported by a 12% swing and miss rate, 67% groundballs and an xERA of 2.14.

Cole Hamels (LHP) has been all over the map in his initial two starts of the season, producing a solid 3.38 ERA and an eye-popping 15.2 K/9 rate but also logging concerning marks in HR/9 rate (2.5) and BB/9 rate (5.9), which has led to a 5.14 xERA. The sum total of the data makes the veteran a boom-or-bust option but one we would not trust for several reasons. Hamels was walked seven and struck out 18 in 11 innings, meaning he’s throwing a lot of pitches per inning. The Jays are very good at working the count so Hamels is likely not going past five or six frames and that’s if things go perfect. His fastball is down to 89 MPH and his line drives were at 30% over his first two starts, which is somewhat disturbing. A strained oblique cost him two months last year and tanked his 1st half strikeout rate, but even if we focus solely on 2nd half skills, ongoing declines in his command and a rising xERA make it unlikely he'll fully rebound. Cole Hamels has a lot of miles on that left arm of his and his dominant start/disaster start trends further highlight the erosion. Do not pay a premium price for what is now a mid-rotation arm.

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Our Pick

Toronto -1 +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)

 

 

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Add-ons over
Toronto +165 over N.Y. YANKEES
N.Y. Mets +150 over PHILADELPHIA
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