Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
3:40 PM EST. Injuries limited Tyler Anderson (LHP) to just 17 appearances (15 starts) in 2017, and the results weren't overly impressive, as he posted a 4.81 ERA. However, a closer look shows some intriguing skills. He has missed bats at a fairly high rate in his relatively small big league sample, and bumped up the swing and miss rate on his cutter from 8% in 2016 to 14% in 2017. He probably won't quite match last year's K-rate, but should still be a respectable K source. He has kept the walks under control and a solid first-pitch strike rate suggests that will continue to be the case. He allowed a few more fly balls in 2017, but the main culprit for his 1.7 hr/9 was a severely inflated home run per fly ball rate. Anderson boasts an impressive 3.39 ERA at Coors in 119.1 career innings and if one can make it there, they can make it anywhere Injuries have slowed Anderson down during the past few seasons, but he's shown some encouraging signs when he's been able to take the mound. He has missed bats, limited the free passes, shown a ground ball tilt, and more than held his own at Coors Field. Success at home can't be taken for granted going forward, but Anderson should have better luck, particularly on the road, which could even lead to a sub-4.00 ERA. The price on him is deflated because he was whacked in his first start and we will not put emphasis on one lousy start.
A 2016 4th-rounder, 24-year-old Joey Lucchesi has already reached the big leagues when he made his major league debut for the Padres last weekend. The 6'5", 205-pound lefty first achieved notice in 2016 when between Low-A Tri-City and A-level Fort Wayne, Lucchesi struck out 56 of the 158 batters he faced while walking only 3 (!). 2017 brought him to High-A and Double-A where he put up more normal, but still solid numbers. If you watched his debut, you'd have noticed his funky delivery that presents problems to the batters in its deception. His fastball can reach 95 mph, but sits in the low-90s, so he is not blowing guys away. He simply makes batters guess and throws quality strikes with heavy action on the fastball. He has a three-pitch mix including a solid curve and a nice change-up. Jumping from Double-A to the majors is not easy, so Lucchesi will have ups and downs. His debut saw him face 22 batters in 4 2/3 innings, striking out only one, but walking no one (naturally) and giving up seven hits. That’s the good news for him but it's bad news for anyone betting him today. What the surface stats do not tell you is that Lucchesi was hanging breaking balls in the middle of the plate to every batter. What it doesn’t tell you is that 43% of contact was hard contact. Good for Joey Lucchesi to thrive at A-ball and Double-AA but there are 1000’s of others that were great in those leagues that never played a major league game. This isn’t the minor leagues, kid. Joey Lucchesi IS NOT even close to being MLB ready. Fade.
We get this at -110 at Pinnacle but that price might not be available for everyone. Spotting -115 or spotting 1½-runs with a takeback still comes highly recommended.
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Colorado -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)