Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:00 PM EST.
4:00 PM EST. Although it’s just two games in, that first win becomes more elusive with each passing loss, especially when losing team is at home. Now 0-2 with Troy Tulowitski on the rack and Josh Donaldson very questionable or at 60%, the Jays are a team in big trouble. They’ve scored three runs in 18 innings thus far and even if they do get to C.C. Sabathia here, which we are in no way conceding, the Yanks figure to outscore and out-bullpen them too.
Sabathia returns to the back end of the Yankee rotation, but the team is reportedly still looking for starting pitching help. Age (37) and Health ("F" grade) are warning signs, and although the 2017 results were encouraging (3.69 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), his 7.3 K’s/9 and 2.4 BB’s/9 are average at best and his 4.20 xERA says regression is coming. Also note that Sabathia only averaged 5.5 innings per start in 2017, the lowest since his 2002 rookie season. That’s fine with us, as the strong Yanks’ bullpen will likely be deployed to supply similar backup in 2018. We can live with whatever C.C. delivers today and let’s not forget he’s a smart pitcher that may have a really good day against a Jays’ offense that is pressing it already. We also get a Yanks offense against Marco Estrada.
The poster boy for inducing infield fly-balls and outpitching his peripherals suddenly... didn't. Skills-wise, this was a near mirror image of 2016, as major shifts in hit% and strand % along with a subtle hr/f rise made the difference. Gravity says he'll rebound slightly but ugly xERA baseline, 2nd half skills, age all agree what we were preaching to you all three years ago about Estrada when he was dominating on paper. Over his last 17 starts fating back to last season, Estrada has the worst ERA among all qualified starters at 6.85 and his xERA over that time isn’t much better. Major league hitters adjust to weak pitchers and Estrada is weak and isn’t fooling anyone anymore. The best news is that the price here allows us to take at least one more shot against him.
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N.Y. Yankees -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)