Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:15 PM EST.
10:10 PM EST. Before we discuss anything about this game, it is worth noting that what has been speculated for years was finally made official when Diamondbacks general manager announced that the club would use a humidor to store baseballs before use in Chase Field this upcoming season (2018). Without getting too far into science here, humidors absorb moisture and make the baseballs a bit "heavier" in terms of their bounce. That is, they won't be hit as hard. There is one example in MLB where a humidor was introduced and the results showed the impact on offense.
Patrick Corbin had an attractive 3.15 ERA at home last season, but he is still not a recommended wager for a home start against Colorado. Corbin's ERA is the only positive matchup sub-score, with wins, WHIP, and K's all at risk. Last season Corbin made four starts against the Rockies and allowed 10 ER in 22.1 IP. Corbin also had a very shaky spring training with five walks and just eight K’s in 11 innings to go along with 13 hits and seven runs allowed for an ERA of 5.22.
Gray made two starts at Chase Field last season (without the humidor of course), winning both and holding the Diamondbacks to 4 ER in 13 IP, with an amazing 20/1 K/BB. Gray has significant breakout appeal this season after years of not fulfilling his ace-like upside. He was nasty against same-sided bats in 2017 for the first time in his career (31% K%, off the charts command vR) and got better as the season went along. Gray has also increased his groundball rate in each MLB season (42, 44, 49% groundball %). If he can rediscover the 12% swing and miss % he flashed in 2016, Gray could be on his way to a 3.00-ERA, 200-K breakout in 2018.
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Colorado +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)