Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
9:40 PM EST. Patrick Corbin had his best month of the season in August (2.52 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). Those elite stats received some very sturdy support too with 9.6 K’s/9 1.8 BB’s/9, 55% grounders and a 3.27 xERA. Corbin’s elite skills had the backing of an excellent 13% swing and miss rate and solid 34% ball%. He now comes into this start with a 13-12 record and a very respectable 4.16 ERA after 29 starts. However, Corbin was absolutely torched in his last start in San Diego and we’ve been watching this starter get into a funk for an extended period of time for years now. His slumps have lasted a lot longer than his good times have so he could be a fragile pitcher after such a bad outing. Furthermore, the Rocks have absolutely torched him in the past, as current Rockies have a combined .342 BA average against Corbin over 173 combined AB’s.
German Marquez has gone mostly unnoticed this season in large part due to his mediocre surface stats (4.26 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). Still, there's some interesting speculative potential here. His skills have surged a ton in the second half with 9.9 K’s/9, 2.2 BB’s/9, 42% grounders and a 3.89 xERA. That xERA is especially impressive because xERA does not take park factors into consideration. Marquez is missing a lot more bats too (8% swing and miss rate in 1H, 12% in 2H) and makes for a nice play here against an Arizona team that has dropped four of five and that has only scored nine times at home over its past three games.
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Colorado +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)